关键词: 气象要素客观预报, 检验评估

Abstract:

Based on the numerical prediction interpretation techniques and forecast experiences，the short － term objective forecast system
of meteorological elements for Northwest China is established． With the aid of meteorological data of real － time observation，the
verification and assessments of objective forecast from the system － output for air temperature and precipitation in winter of 2006 have
been performed． The results show: ( 1) The forecast accuracy of maximum and minimum temperature is much higher than that of precipitation
with the accurate rates of 70% and 34%，respectively． ( 2) The factors affecting the forecast accuracies of temperature and
precipitation are the static stability of atmosphere and relative humidity． ( 3) If the system established on month scale，the forecast accuracy
of temperature is expected to have a 10% improvement．

Key words: objective forecast of meteorological elements, verification and assessment