2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测

J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (3): 72-75.

2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测

汤懋苍^{1, 2} ,李　洁^{1, 3} ,周长春^{1, 3}

1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃　兰州　730000;2. 兰州高原天灾预防研究所,甘肃　兰州　730000; 3. 中国科学院研究生院,北京　100029

收稿日期:2008-07-15 修回日期:2008-07-28 出版日期:2008-09-30 发布日期:2008-09-30
作者简介:汤懋苍(1935-) ,男,江西宜春人,研究员,主要从事地球系统演化和短期气候预测研究.
基金资助:
干旱气象科研基金( IAM200705)资助

Rev iew of Clima te Pred iction in 2007 Ba sed on D i - q iMap and Prec ip ita tion Pred iction Dur ing Be ijin O lymp ics

TANGMaocang^1,2,, L I J ie^1,3, ZHOU Changchun^1,3

1. Cold and A rid Regions Environm ental and Engineering Research Institute, CAS, Lanzhou 730000, China;2. Lanzhou Plateau Institute of N atural D isasters Prediction, Lanzhou 730000, China;3. Graduate School of Chinese Academ y of Sciences, B eijing 100029, China

Received:2008-07-15 Revised:2008-07-28 Online:2008-09-30 Published:2008-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

对2007年做出的各项气候预测进行了回顾,汛期预报中预测的西北大部、淮河流域和福建3块多雨区基本正确,它们都是根据地气图的基本原理预测得到。月降水预报取得平均70. 5分的好成绩,这得益于地气系统的活动规律较单纯;年度预报则基本上失败了,这是因为2008年1月我国发生了6. 9级强震,破坏了地气系统的正常运行规律,使预报准确率大为降低。最后还对2008年8月的月降水预测进行了讨论。

关键词: 地气图, 气候预测, 地气环流(地下气象)

Abstract:

The precip itation p rediction in 2007 was reviewed. In the flood season, the p rediction that the great part ofNorthwest China,Huaihe Valley and Fujian would be three more rainfall areas is basically correct, which based on the Di - qi map forecast p rincip le.The monthly p recip itation p rediction gets a good average score of 70. 5, which is due to the simp le underground gas system actions. But because of theMs6. 9 earthquake happened in China in January 2008, which destroyed the normal operation of underground gas system and caused the forecast accuracy reduced greatly, the year prediction is basically unsuccessful. Finally the p recip itation p rediction of August, 2008 was discussed.

Key words: Di - qimap, climate prediction, underground gas circulation

中图分类号:

P461

汤懋苍, 李　洁, 周长春. 2007年地气图方法预测总结和北京奥运期间降水预测[J]. J4, 2008, 26(3): 72-75.

SHANG Mao-Cang, LI 　Ji, ZHOU Chang-Chun. Rev iew of Clima te Pred iction in 2007 Ba sed on D i - q iMap and Prec ip ita tion Pred iction Dur ing Be ijin O lymp ics[J]. J4, 2008, 26(3): 72-75.

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