J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (1): 73-77.

• 综述 • 上一篇    下一篇


乔 娟1, 2 ,  张 强2 ,  张 杰2   

  1. 1.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081; 2. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 出版日期:2008-03-31 发布日期:2008-03-31
  • 作者简介:乔娟(1984 - ) ,女,陕西宝鸡人,在读硕士,主要从事陆面过程、陆- 气相互作用研究. E - mail: juanqiao2005@163. com
  • 基金资助:


Foreca st of Prec ip ita tion over 10 mm Ba sed on T213Ma thema tical Foreca st Products in M idsummer in Ba iy in

Q IAO Juan1,2, ZHANG Qiang2 , ZHANG J ie2   

  1. 1. Chinese Academ y ofM eteorological Sciences , B eijing 100081, China; 2. Key Laboratory of A rid Clim atic
    Change and Reducing D isaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of A rid Clim ate Change and
    D isaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of A rid M eteorology, CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Online:2008-03-31 Published:2008-03-31


非均匀下垫面对陆面过程模式应用有着重要影响。若将下垫面一概视为均一,在很多情况下会影响模式模拟的准确性。本文详细介绍了目前非均匀地表陆面过程参数化的方法(Mosaic法、统计—动力法和其它方法) ,初步分析了这些参数化方法的缺陷,并简单探讨了陆面参数尺度转换问题,最后对今后研究的问题给出了建议,其中特别提出要寻找适当方法实现陆面物理量不同尺度间的转换。

关键词: 非均匀下垫面, 陆面过程, 参数化方法, 尺度转换


Based on theM ICAPS, T213 mathematical forecast p roducts, aerological observations from 34 stations in forecast key area
and p ressure, p recip itation data for different time in Baiyin, the weather patterns of p recip itation over 10 mm in Baiyin are generalized
by analyzing the synop tic character, and according to them an objective quantification group ing ismade. Some indices and p rediction
factorswith physical significance on p recip itation over 10 mm are selected, and a short - period forecastmodel for p recip itation over 10
mm is built by using the PP numerical interp retable and app lied method. Finally, a forecast test from June to August in 2007 ismade,
it shows a excellent results that the average forecast accuracy reaches 66. 7%.

Key words: T213, numerical interp retation and app lication, p recip itation forecast