J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 21-24.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

天津市及周围地区近500 a旱涝变化分析

苏同卫1李可军1李启秀1,2穆军1,2高朋鑫1,2   

  1. 1.中国科学院国家天文台/云南天文台,云南昆明65001l;2.中国科学院研究生院,北京100049
  • 收稿日期:2006-08-19 修回日期:2006-10-19 出版日期:2007-03-31 发布日期:2007-03-31
  • 作者简介:苏同卫(1979-),男,硕士,主要从事太阳活动变化对气候影响的研究.E-mail:sutw@ynao.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:

    西部之光项目“太阳活动的地球物理效应(034201101)”资助

Analysis on Flood/ .Drought Variance in Tianjin City and Its Surrounding RegiOn for Recent 500 Years

SU Tongwei 1,LI Kejun 1,LI Qixiu 1,2MU Jun 1,2,GAO Pengxin 1,2   

  1. 1.National Astronomical Observatories/Ymma~Astronomical Observatory,CAS,Kunm/ng 650011,China;2.Graduate University of Chinese Academy ofSc/ences,neq/ng 100049,China
  • Received:2006-08-19 Revised:2006-10-19 Online:2007-03-31 Published:2007-03-31

摘要:

为揭示天津市及其周围地区(4-3。)旱涝变化的时间演变特征和变化趋势,采用相关分析、累积距平、滑动t检验、小波分析等统计分析方法,对该地区5个站1470~2000年的旱涝资料进行了分析。结果表明,该地区旱涝变化基本一致,旱年、涝年呈正态分布;在这段时期里,有4个比较显著的干旱、洪涝阶段;旱涝变化有大约10,20和36 a的周期性,和太阳活动周期密切相关.

关键词: 天津, 旱涝变化, 累积距平, 小波分析

Abstract:

To reveal the temporal variation characteristics of drought/flood in Tianjin city and its surrounding region(±3。),the drought or flood data of5 stations there from 1470 to 2000 were analyzed by using statistical analysis methods,such fits correlation ana1.ysis,accumulative anomaly,moving t—test,wavelet method and SO on.The results show that the flood or drought variance was almost  the~qnle;the years occurringflood ordrought presented normal distribution;therewerefour evidentflood/drought periods during1470— 2000;the periodicity of flood/drought variance WaS about 10.2O and 36 years.

Key words: Tianjin, flood/drought variance, accumulative anomaly, wavelet analysis

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