气候变化背景下河北夏玉米生长季热量资源利用率时空变化

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2023)-04-0639

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

探究夏玉米生长季热量资源利用率的时空分布特征，可为夏玉米品种布局调整、保障高产稳产提供理论依据。基于河北省夏玉米主产区15个农业气象观测站1981—2019年逐日气象数据、玉米及后茬轮作小麦的发育期观测数据，利用回归分析及空间插值等方法，分析气候变化背景下夏玉米生长季热量资源利用率时空变化。结果表明，1981—2019年河北省夏玉米潜在生长日数无显著变化、潜在积温显著增加（P<0.05）；生长季热量资源利用率显著增加（P<0.05），生长日数利用率从1981年的80.4%提高到2019年的94.5%，积温利用率从1981年的84.5%提高至2019年的94.9%。河北地区夏玉米潜在生长季日数、潜在积温呈现南多北少的空间分布；生长日数利用率及积温利用率整体呈现南低北高的分布特征，其中廊坊地区生长日数利用率及积温利用率均较高（95%以上），邯郸生长日数利用率较低（85%以下）。1981—2019年夏玉米花前积温与花后积温气候倾向率分别为19.6、58.7 ℃·d·（10 a）^-1，花后积温的上升速度明显高于花前积温，积温比呈现明显下降趋势，从1981年的1.6下降到2019年的1.1，下降28.5%。研究表明冀南地区夏玉米气候资源利用率仍有一定的提升空间，可以选用生长季更长的中熟和晚熟品种，育种或栽培上可选择灌浆阶段更长的品种，充分利用生长季热量条件，提高玉米产量。

关键词: 夏玉米, 生长季日数, 积温, 生长季热量资源利用率, 花前花后积温比

Abstract:

Exploring the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of heat resources utilization efficiency of summer maize in growth season could provide theoretical basis for the adjustment of summer maize variety layout and guarantee of a high and stable maize yield. Based on the daily meteorological data of 15 agricultural meteorological observation stations from 1981 to 2019, and the observation data of the growing period of summer maize and wheat in the later crop rotation in Hebei Province, the regression analysis and spatial interpolation methods are used to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of heat resources utilization efficiency of summer maize in growth season under climate change. The results show that the potential growing days of summer maize in Hebei Province had no significant change from 1981 to 2019, while the potential accumulated temperature increased significantly (P<0.05). The utilization efficiency of heat resources during growth season increased significantly (P<0.05), the utilization efficiency of growing days increased from 80.4% in 1981 to 94.5% in 2019, and the utilization efficiency of accumulated temperature increased from 84.5% in 1981 to 94.9% in 2019. The potential growing days and accumulated temperature of summer maize were more in the south and less in the north, and the utilization efficiency of growing days and accumulated temperature were lower in the south and higher in the north. There was higher utilization efficiency (more than 95%) of growing days and accumulated temperature in Langfang, while in Handan the utilization efficiency of growing days was lower (less than 85%). The accumulated temperature of summer maize increased at a rate of 19.6 ℃·d·(10 a)^-1 before anthesis and 58.7 ℃·d·(10 a)^-1 after anthesis. The increase rate of accumulated temperature after anthesis was obviously higher than that before anthesis, and the ratio of accumulated temperature showed an obvious downward trend, it fell 28.5% from 1.6 in 1981 to 1.1 in 2019. The results demonstrate that the utilization efficiency of climate resources of summer maize in the southern Hebei had some space for improvement. The medium and late maturing varieties with a longer growing season could be selected, and the varieties with a longer filling stage could be selected for breeding or cultivation, so as to make full use of the heat conditions in the growing season and improve maize yield.

Key words: summer maize, growing days, accumulated temperature, utilization efficiency of heat resources in growth season, the ratio of accumulated temperature before anthesis to that after anthesis

中图分类号:

韩耀杰, 彭记永, 张溪荷, 李树岩. 气候变化背景下河北夏玉米生长季热量资源利用率时空变化[J]. 干旱气象, 2023, 41(4): 639-647.

HAN Yaojie, PENG Jiyong, ZHANG Xihe, LI Shuyan. Spatial and temporal variations of heat resources utilization efficiency of summer maize in growth season under climate change in Hebei Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2023, 41(4): 639-647.

图/表 7

图1 河北省农业气象站及夏玉米主产区空间分布

Fig.1 The location of agrometeorological stations and main producing areas of summer maize in Hebei Province

图2 1981—2019年河北省夏玉米生长日数（a）及生长日数利用率（b）变化（阴影区域实线表示线性回归模型的拟合值，通过α=0.05的显著性检验。下同）

Fig.2 Variation of growing days （a） and its utilization rate （b） of summer maize from 1981 to 2019 in Hebei Province （The real line in the shadow region represents the fitting value of the linear regression model， passing α=0.05 significance test. the same as below）

图3 1981—2019年不同年代河北省夏玉米潜在生长日数空间分布（单位：d）

Fig.3 Spatial distribution of potential growth days of summer maize in Hebei Province in different decades from 1981 to 2019 （Unit： d）

图4 1981—2019年河北省不同年代夏玉米生长日数利用率空间分布（单位：%）

Fig.4 Spatial distribution of utilization rate of growth days of summer maize in Hebei Province in different decades from 1981 to 2019 （Unit： %）

图5 1981—2019年河北省夏玉米生长季积温（a）及其利用率（b）变化

Fig.5 Variation of accumulative temperature （a） and its utilization rate （b） of summer maize in growth season from 1981 to 2019 in Hebei Province

图6 1981—2019年不同年代河北省夏玉米生长季积温利用率空间分布（单位：%）

Fig.6 Spatial distribution of utilization rate of accumulative temperature of summer maize in growth season in Hebei Province in different decades from 1981 to 2019 （Unit： %）

图7 1981—2019年河北省夏玉米花前、花后积温（a）及花前、花后积温比（b）变化

Fig.7 Temporal change of accumulated temperature during pre and post flowering period of summer maize （a） and their ratio （b） from 1981 to 2019 in Hebei Province

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