关键词: 济南机场, 低能见度, 低跑道视程, 冲突样本, 对比分析

Abstract:

Based on the hourly visibility (VIS) and runway visual range (RVR) observation data during 2010-2016 at Jinan Airport, the monthly, diurnal characteristics of low visibility （VIS≤800 m）and low RVR （RVR≤550 m）and their relationship were comparatively analyzed by using mathematical statistic method. The monthly variation of low visibility and low RVR both presented asymmetric “U” type distribution with the center in summer, and the high-frequency occurred from November to February. The hourly variation of low visibility and low RVR presented arch distribution with the peak at the period of 22:00-23:00 (Universal Time), and low RVR appeared more frequently from 17:00 to 02:00. The durations of both were obviously in inverse ratio to the occurring times of both. Fog and pogonip were the main visual obstruction phenomena causing low visibility and low RVR. Rainfall had a greater influence on low visibility than low RVR. There was significantly positive correlation between low visibility and low RVR from November to February, and their difference was smaller. There was no obvious correlation between low visibility and low RVR and their difference was bigger from March to October. From 23:00 to 15:00, there was good correlation between low visibility and low RVR, and their difference was smaller, but there was no obvious correlation between them and their difference was bigger from 16:00 to 22:00.  “Conflict sample” mainly occurred from 16:00 to 22:00 with light fog or part fog after rain from March to October. The low visibility and low RVR had significant correlations with relative humidity, depression of the dew point, wind direction, visibility before the day and 6 h, 12 h temperature difference at 22:00. The optimum subset regression method was used to establish forecast equation of low visibility and low RVR under season classification condition, and TS score reached a certain level.
 Jinan AirporBased on the hourly visibility (VIS) and runway visual range (RVR) observation data during 2010-2016 at Jinan Airport, the monthly, diurnal characteristics of low visibility （VIS≤800 m）and low RVR （RVR≤550 m）and their relationship were comparatively analyzed by using mathematical statistic method. The monthly variation of low visibility and low RVR both presented asymmetric “U” type distribution with the center in summer, and the high-frequency occurred from November to February. The hourly variation of low visibility and low RVR presented arch distribution with the peak at the period of 22:00-23:00 (Universal Time), and low RVR appeared more frequently from 17:00 to 02:00. The durations of both were obviously in inverse ratio to the occurring times of both. Fog and pogonip were the main visual obstruction phenomena causing low visibility and low RVR. Rainfall had a greater influence on low visibility than low RVR. There was significantly positive correlation between low visibility and low RVR from November to February, and their difference was smaller. There was no obvious correlation between low visibility and low RVR and their difference was bigger from March to October. From 23:00 to 15:00, there was good correlation between low visibility and low RVR, and their difference was smaller, but there was no obvious correlation between them and their difference was bigger from 16:00 to 22:00.  “Conflict sample” mainly occurred from 16:00 to 22:00 with light fog or part fog after rain from March to October. The low visibility and low RVR had significant correlations with relative humidity, depression of the dew point, wind direction, visibility before the day and 6 h, 12 h temperature difference at 22:00. The optimum subset regression method was used to establish forecast equation of low visibility and low RVR under season classification condition, and TS score reached a certain level.

Key words:  Jinan Airport, low visibility, low runway visual range, conflict sample, comparative analysis