干旱气象

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干旱气象科学研究——“我国北方干旱致灾过程及机理”项目概述与主要进展

  

  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室, 甘肃 兰州 730020;
    2.甘肃省气象局,甘肃 兰州 730020;
    3.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081;
    4.中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京 100029;
    5.北京大学,北京 100871;
    6.国家气候中心,北京 100081;
    7.国家气象信息中心,北京 100081;
    8.兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000;
    9.南京信息工程大学,江苏 南京 210044
  • 出版日期:2017-04-30 发布日期:2017-04-30
  • 作者简介:李耀辉(1967- ),男,研究员,主要从事干旱气象及其相关领域研究. E-mail:li-yaohui@163. com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001)、国家自然科学基金(41575149、41175081)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006023)共同资助

Summary of the Main Progress of Drought Meteorology Scientific Research:the Mechanism and Disaster Formation Processes of Drought in the North Region of China

  1. 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    2. Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China;
    3. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;
    4. Beijing University, Beijing 100871, China;
    5. Institute of Atmospheric Physics, CAS, Beijing 100029, China;
    6. National Climate Centre, Beijing 100081, China;
    7.National Meteorological Information Centre, Beijing 100081, China;
    8. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    9. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Online:2017-04-30 Published:2017-04-30

摘要:

干旱灾害是影响社会经济发展、农业生产和生态文明建设的重要自然因素,随着气候变暖,极端干旱事件发生频率和强度均呈增加趋势,影响不断加重。“干旱气象科学研究”是由中国气象局等国家部委组织的三大气象科学试验研究计划之一,是继“第三次青藏高原大气科学试验”实施后,于2015年以行业科研重大专项项目形式批准立项的又一重大科学研究计划。本文简要介绍了本项目的基本架构以及在外场观测试验和科学研究方面所取得的重点研究成果,展望了干旱气象科学研究趋势及可能取得的主要突破。项目以提升我国干旱防灾减灾能力、保障粮食与生态安全为科技支撑目标,以发展干旱基础理论为科学研究目标,以提高干旱监测预测预警及影响评估技术水平为业务应用目标,以我国北方地区为重点研究区域,开展跨学科、综合性、系统性的干旱气象科学试验和科学研究。实施以来,已在西北至华北的干旱半干旱区建立“V”型的干旱致灾过程及其陆—气相互作用观测试验站网布局,并开展系统性观测试验。科学研究方面也取得重要成果。研究发现,自我防御机制有助于我国北方草地主要优势种和建群种——贝加尔针茅适应未来气候变化。气候变化使中国骤发性干旱显著增加,尤其在湿润和半湿润地区可能性更大,且在未来几十年有可能持续下去,这对中国农业和水资源持续利用造成严重影响。另外,复杂下垫面地区的地—气交换研究方法得到有效改进;干旱半干旱区域的模式系统发展取得进展;发现春小麦、春玉米对干旱胁迫的响应特征,构建了玉米冠层含水量的普适性高光谱遥感估算方法等。

关键词: 干旱研究计划, 中国北方, 致灾机理

Abstract:

Drought Disaster is an important natural factor that impact social and economic development, agricultural production and ecological civilization construction. With climate warming,the frequency and intensity of extreme drought events show increasing trends, and the influence is increasing. “China Drought Meteorology Scientific Research Project” is one of the three scientific experiments about meteorological research program organized by the China Meteorological Administration and other national ministries and organizations. It was another major scientific research projects approved in 2015, which followed“ The Third Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Science Experiment” embodiment. This paper briefly describes the project objectives research priorities and preliminary research results.The project aims to improve the drought disaster prevention and mitigation,and ensure food and ecological security. The scientific goal of the project is developing the basic theory of drought, and the business application aim is to improve drought monitoring, forecasting and early warning, and the impact assessment technology.With focusing on the north China, the project had conducted interdisciplinary, comprehensive, and systematic arid meteorology sciences experimental studies. Since the implementation, the “V”-shaped drought disaster process and its land-atmosphere interaction observation station network layout had been established in arid and semi-arid areas from northwest to north China, with systematic observation experiments had been carried out. Important scientific research achievements had also been made. Results show that the self-defense mechanism is helpful to the adaptation of the dominant species-Stipa baicalensis to climate change in the future. Increasing flash droughts in China during the recent global warming hiatus would be more likely to occur in humid and sub-humid areas, and it would be likely to continue in the coming decades, with serious impacts on the availability of agricultural and water resources in China. In addition, the research methods of land-atmosphere exchange over the complex underlying surface area are effectively improved. The developments of the arid and semi-arid regional model system have been made. And the response characteristics of spring wheat and spring maize to drought stress have been found, and the universal remote sensing maize canopy water content estimation methods have also been constructed.

Key words: drought scientific research project, the north region of China, mechanism of disaster causing

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