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Analysis on Climate and Ecological Environment Change in the Ejin Delta,the Lower Reaches of the Heihe River
NIAN Yanyun,WANG Xiaoli,CAI Dihua
Journal of Arid Meteorology    2015, 33 (1): 28-37.   DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2015)-01-0028
Abstract1784)      PDF(pc) (1917KB)(3121)       Save

As a major driving factor of environment change,characteristic analysis of climate change is very important for environment detection. In this paper,by taking the Ejin delta in the lower reaches of the Heihe River as the research area,on the basis of temperature and precipitation data during 1960 - 2012 from Ejin meteorological station,the characteristic of climate change over the past 53 years was analyzed firstly by using the methods of Mann - Kendall test,regression analysis and accumulative anomaly,and then Mann - Kendall test and R/S analysis were used to predict the future climate change trend. The results were as followed:The temperature in the Ejin delta increased and precipitation appeared non - remarkable trend over the past 53 years. There were remarkable differences in different decades, the temperature increased most from the 1980s to the 1990s,while precipitation appeared fluctuating change with less - more - less. A dryer and warmer climate trend would be obvious in the 21st century,and the warm winter phenomenon would be significant. Combining the data of GIMMS - NDVI,the East Juyan Lake area and runoff at the Zhengyi gauge station,through the Pearson correlation analysis, we concluded that warm and dry climate trend and the runoff reduction of the Heihe River led to shrink and salinization of the West and East Juyan Lakes,and the vegetation degradation. While the increase of the East Juyan Lake area from 2003 was the result of ecological conveyance water project in 2002,rather than the warming - wetting trend of climate.

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