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Analysis on the Forming Reason of A large Range Severe Convective Weather
DING Yong-Gong- , MA Jin-Ren, JI Xiao-Ling
J4    2006, 24 (1): 28-33.  
Abstract1501)      PDF(pc) (139KB)(2927)       Save

By using the conventional meteorological data,a meteorological analysis on the large scale circulation background,the synoptic scale influencing systems,the hourly evolvement of satellite cloud image and the atmospheric stratification stability that caused the formation and the development of the meso - α - scale convective system,which caused the severe convective weather process on May 30,2005,was done in this paper;and based on the physical quantity products of T213 numerical weather forecast model,a dynamic analysis on the distribution of physical quantity fields of the system was also done. The results show that under the favorable conditions of temperature and humidity and dynamic factors,such as the Mongolia cold vortex rotating and moving eastwards and southwards,the existence of both the high - level and low - level jet stream,the warm and wet tongue extending in the low layer,the cold and dry tongue in the middle layer,and the large area convective instability,several meso - γ - scale convective systems were excited,then they united into several meso - β - scale convective systems,eventually,the meso - α - scale convective system was formed by the coalition of the several meso - β - scale convective systems.

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Fine MOS Temperature Forecast Based on MMS
CHEN Shu-Yang, CHEN Xiao-Guang, MA Jin-Ren, MA Shai-Yan, SHAO Jian
J4    2005, 23 (4): 52-56.  
Abstract1690)      PDF(pc) (234KB)(2324)       Save

Based on hourly data of both basic; elements forecasting fields and physical quantity diagnosing fields of MMS,and the temperature records of 25 stations in Ningxia from September 2002 to August 2003,multivariate and stepwise regressions were adopted to set up the MOS model of 48 hours hourly temperature forecast in 25 stations in Ningxia.  The effect test、onduc;ted from June 2004 to May 2005 indicates that the MOS method has a good(apability in forecasting 48 h hourly temperature in Ningxia.  As weather(hanged smoothly the forecast result of MOS was stable and mean absolute errors were within 2℃;When the(old air invaded the forecast result was unstable but it was much better than that of original product of MMS.  Some of the TS grades of 24 hours extreme temperature fnrenast are nlnse to nr even hetter than that of fnrenaetere

 

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