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Analysis on Correlation C limatic Factors and Establishm ent of the PredictionM odel for Dust Storm Events in ShanxiProvince
LIU Rui-Lan, LIN Guo-Yu, TUN Tie-Hua
J4    2009, 27 (2): 111-117.  
Abstract1889)      PDF(pc) (455KB)(2439)       Save

The relationship between dust storm days in ShanxiProvince and precipitation inMongolia, snow days on Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, snow days in northern China, circulation factors such as SOIwas analyzed in this paper. Results show that the quasi-periodic variation of global atmosphere and oceans plays an important role in development and change of dust storm events. Precipitation in the lastyear in thewestofMongolia is an indicator fordust storm weather in ShanxiProvince. There exists significantnegative correlation between yearly duststorm days in Shanxi and snow days in previouswinteron theQinghai-XizangPlateau and in InnerMongolia.Two years lag positive correlation between duststorm days and SOI index is also found. Stationswith significantcorrelationwith SOI index are generally located in the central and eastern parts ofShanxiProvince. Based on the correlation analysis, a conceptionmodel is put forward, and a prediction equation is builtby using stepwise linear regressionmethod. It could be used in prediction ofdust storm frequency in ShanxiProvince.

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Tempera ture Var ia tion Character istic of Shuozhou in Recen t 45 Years and Its Effects on Agr icultura l Production
LIU Rui-Lan, TUN Tie-Hua, HAN  Gong
J4    2007, 25 (4): 62-67.  
Abstract1466)      PDF(pc) (558KB)(3337)       Save

Based on the annual average air temperature data during 1961 - 2005 from six stations in Shuozhou, the air temperature change characteristics were analyzed statistically with methods such as climate inclination rate and sliding average in recent 45 years.The result indicated that during the past 45 years, the annualmean temperature, the annualmean maximum temperature and the annualmean minimum temperature p resented an up trend since the middle of the 1970 s, and the annualmean temperature rose with the rate of 0. 43℃/10 a, in addition, the mean minimum temperature rise overtopped the mean maximum temperature obviously. This up trend is accelerated to some extent after the 1990 s, especially obvious in winter’s temperature. There have been 15 warm winters since 1987 in Shuozhou, with the most typ ical ones occurring after 1995. The p lant diseases and insect pests tended to be more serious with climate warming, so it is necessary to study how to ensure high p roduction and quality of the local agriculture.

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