Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Application of the Stepwise Decreasing FAR Method to Hail Forecast in the Eastern Qilian Mountains

QIAN Li1,2, TENG Jie1, YANG Xin3, BAI Guoqiang3   

  1. 1. Wuwei Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province, Wuwei 733000, China; 2. Institute of Arid
     Meteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu
     Province, Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou
     730020,China; 3.Gansu Provincial Meteorological Bureau, Lanzhou 730020, China
  • Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-06-30

逐步消空法在祁连山区东部冰雹预报中的应用

钱莉1,2滕杰1杨鑫3白国强3   

  1. 1.甘肃省武威市气象局,甘肃武威733000;2.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,
    甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,
    甘肃兰州730020;3.甘肃省气象局,甘肃兰州730020
  • 作者简介:钱莉(1963-),女(汉族),浙江金华人,正研级高级工程师,主要从事天气气候研究工作. E-mail:wwqxjql@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    公益性行业(气象)科研专项(重大专项)(GYHY201506001-6)资助

Abstract:

The 4 280 samples and 114 hail cases from March to September during 1992-2012 at five stations in the eastern Qilian Mountains were selected and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in the same period were used to construct 104 kinds of convection parameters to reflect the local convective weather features by using the difference methods including calculus of differences, weather diagnostics, combination of factors, etc. On the basis of synoptic type, the correlation coefficient between each convection parameter and hail day in the same period was calculated by using the method of point biserial correlation coefficient. Factors with good correlation and obvious physical meaning were selected as candidate factors, then the stepwise decreasing FAR method was used to introduce the factor one by one according to the empty forecast rate threshold set. When it was less than the threshold requirement, the introduction of the factor was ended. The forecasting model was used to examine the forecasting results during 2013-2014, the accuracy rate of prediction could reach 45.5% without omission forecast, the forecast effect was better.

Key words: convection parameter, the stepwise decreasing FAR method, hail, the eastern Qilian Mountains

摘要:

选取祁连山区东部5个测站1992—2012年3—9月4 280个样本和114个冰雹个例,利用同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,采用差分法、天气诊断、因子组合等方法构造出反映本地对流天气特征的104种对流参数。在天气学分型的基础上,利用点双序列相关系数方法计算每个对流参数与同期冰雹日的相关系数,选取相关性好且物理意义明显的因子作为候选因子,利用逐步消空法,根据设定的空报率阈值,逐个引进因子,当小于阈值要求,结束预报因子的引进。对2013—2014年预报模型试报效果进行检验,预报准确率达45.5%,命中率为100%,预报效果较好。

关键词: 对流参数, 逐步消空法, 冰雹, 祁连山区东部

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