Abstract:

As a major driving factor of environment change，characteristic analysis of climate change is very important for environment detection． In this paper，by taking the Ejin delta in the lower reaches of the Heihe River as the research area，on the basis of temperature and precipitation data during 1960 － 2012 from Ejin meteorological station，the characteristic of climate change over the past 53 years was analyzed firstly by using the methods of Mann － Kendall test，regression analysis and accumulative anomaly，and then Mann － Kendall test and R/S analysis were used to predict the future climate change trend． The results were as followed:The temperature in the Ejin delta increased and precipitation appeared non － remarkable trend over the past 53 years． There were remarkable differences in different decades， the temperature increased most from the 1980s to the 1990s，while precipitation appeared fluctuating change with less － more － less． A dryer and warmer climate trend would be obvious in the 21st century，and the warm winter phenomenon would be significant． Combining the data of GIMMS － NDVI，the East Juyan Lake area and runoff at the Zhengyi gauge station，through the Pearson correlation analysis， we concluded that warm and dry climate trend and the runoff reduction of the Heihe River led to shrink and salinization of the West and East Juyan Lakes，and the vegetation degradation． While the increase of the East Juyan Lake area from 2003 was the result of ecological conveyance water project in 2002，rather than the warming － wetting trend of climate．

Key words: temperature, precipitation, Mann － Kendall test, R/S analysis, Ejin delta

摘要：

气候是生态环境变化的重要驱动因子，分析其变化特征对生态环境监测具有重要意义.本文以生态环境急剧恶化的黑河流域下游额济纳三角洲为研究对象，利用1960～2012年额济纳气象站的气温降水资料，采用Mann－Kendall检验、回归分析及累积距平曲线分析气候特征，结合重标极差(R/S)分析法预测未来趋势结果表明:近53a额济纳三角洲气温显著升高降水无明显趋势;气温年代际增温幅度差异明显，1980年代1990年代增幅最大；降水呈“少多少”波动变化，21世纪暖干化明显;暖冬现象显著。结合GIMMS－NDVI及东居延海面积、正义峡径流量，通过Pearson相关分析，结果表明:气候暖干化及黑河干流下泄量减少导致东居延海萎缩盐化、植被退化；2003年以后东居延海面积增加是2002年开始人为生态输水的结果，而非气候暖湿化的表现。

关键词: 气温, 降水, Mann－Kendall检验, R/S分析, 额济纳三角洲