Abstract:

By using two kinds of methods such as the regional rainfall comparison test and the regional historical regression test，the effect testing method which was adapted to artificial precipitation operation in Ji’ ning was analyzed． Statistics showed that the periods of artificial precipitation operation in Ji’ ning mainly concentrated from February to May，and weather systems such as cold front，transverse trough，southern trough， southern cyclones and reflux were in favor of artificial precipitation operation． The increasing precipitation of two stable precipitation processes was calculated by using regional rainfall comparison test，and the average increasing rainfall through artificial rainfall operations during 2004 －2007 in Ji’ ning area was also calculated by using the regional historical regression test． Then the effect of artificial precipitation operation in February and April was compared． The results show that differrent testing methods resulted in large differrent effect of artificial precipitation operation，and the method of regional rainfall comparison was well conducive to effect evaluation for artificial precipitation operation in Ji’ ning area．

Key words:  artificial precipitation, effect test, Ji’ning

摘要：

利用国内外普遍应用的区域雨量对比和历史区域回归试验 2 种增雨效果统计检验方法， 分析适用于山东济宁地区人工增雨效果检验的评估方法。运用区域雨量对比试验计算出 2 次稳定性降水过程增加的降水量， 运用历史区域回归试验法计算了 2006 ～2009 年济宁地区人工增雨作业的平均增雨量， 对 2 月和 4 月的增雨效果进行了对比分析。结果表明:效果检验方法的不同导致人工增雨的降水量增加效果差别较大， 利用区域雨量对比方法对济宁地区人工增雨效果评估非常实用。

关键词: 山东济宁, 人工增雨, 效果检验