Journal of Arid Meteorology
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LU Shan1,WANG Baipeng2,HE Hao1,LI Jianke1,GAO Hongyan1
Online:
Published:
卢珊1,王百朋2,贺皓1,李建科1,高红燕1
作者简介:
基金资助:
陕西省气象局 2014 年度气象科技创新基金项目(2014M -39)资助
Abstract:
Based on daily precipitation data of 21 meteorological stations in flood season (from May to October) during 1971 -2011 in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River and daily inflow in Ankang and Shiquan during 2000 -2011,the climate change characteristics and future trend of area precipitation during the flood season in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River were analyzed systematically by using anomaly analysis,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann - Kendall test,correlation analysis and rescaled range analysis methods. The results showed that the precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River mainly happened from July to September,the monthly and daily maximum area precipitation appeared in July. The area rainfall had an insignificant increase trend in the whole in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River in the past 41 years. Therein,the area rainfall was more in the 1980s,that significantly decreased in the 1990s and obviously increased since the 2000s,and the mutation of area precipitation occurred in 2005. The heavy rain mainly concen- trated in July and September,which with 50 mm and above of the daily area precipitation accounted for more than half in July. The oc- currence frequency of heavy rainfall with 3 or more days was obviously higher in July and September. The continuous heavy rainfall was frequently appearing in the 1980s,decreased in the 1990s,and gradually increased since the 2000s,which was consistent with the decadal change of area precipitation in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River. Furthermore,Hurst index was 0. 690,and that was closer to 0. 5. This means that the future area precipitation will maintain current upward trend,but it is biggish uncertainty.
Key words: area precipitation, upper reaches of the Hanjiang River, climate characteristics
摘要:
利用汉江上游流域 21 个测站 1971 ~ 2011 年汛期(5 ~ 10 月)逐日降水资料及安康和石泉2000 ~2011 年逐日库流量资料,采用距平分析、Morlet 小波分析、Mann - Kendall 检验、相关分析及重标极差 R/S 分形等方法,系统地分析了汉江上游流域汛期面雨量的气候变化特征和未来趋势。结果表明:汉江上游流域汛期降水主要集中在7 ~9 月,月、日面雨量极大值均发生在7 月;20 世纪80 年代为汉江上游流域丰水期,90 年代为明显少雨期,进入 21 世纪以来降水逐渐增长,突变点为 2005 年,面雨量总体呈不显著增长趋势;强降水主要集中在7 月和9 月,且日面雨量在50. 0 mm 及以上的强降水,仅 7 月就占了一半以上;7 月和 9 月发生 3 d 以上集中强降水过程的频次显著偏高,20 世纪 80 年代为集中强降水过程的频发期,90 年代频次明显下降,21 世纪以来频次明显增多,这与汉江流域汛期面雨量的年代际变化趋势相一致。另外,Hurst 分形指数为 0. 690,表明未来汉江上游流域汛期面雨量具有持久性和长效记忆效应,未来雨量虽仍存在着增加趋势,但其变化具有较大的不确定性。
关键词: 面雨量, 汉江上游, 气候特征
CLC Number:
P426. 61 +4
LU Shan,WANG Baipeng,HE Hao,LI Jianke,GAO Hongyan. Climate Characteristics of Area Precipitation in Flood Season in Upper Reaches of the Hanjiang River[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006 -7639(2014) -02 -0201.
卢珊,王百朋,贺皓,李建科,高红燕. 汉江上游汛期面雨量气候特征[J]. 干旱气象, DOI: 10. 11755/j. issn. 1006 -7639(2014) -02 -0201.
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