The Construction and Quantitative Study of Upper － Level Trough Strength Index

doi:10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2014) －02 －0169

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the 500 hPa vorticity，height and wind fields of NCEP reanalysis data with 6 hours temporal and 1° ×1° spatial res-
olution over the region of 25°N －35°N，110°E －120°E from 2002 to 2010，the strength index of upper － level trough (TSI) was con-
structed by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)． The results show that there was a good consistency between TSI and trough
strength，and the greater TSI，the stronger upper － level trough was． TSI had indicative significance not only for upper trough，but also
for upper ridge． The upper － level trough was obvious when the value of TSI was greater than 0． 6，but the trough and ridge were not
apparent when the value of TSI was between 0． 35 and 0． 6 and the consistent westerly circulation was presented，and when the value of
TSI was less than 0． 35，the upper － level ridge was significant． In order to test TSI，the data in 2011 was imported into the formula of
TSI，and the result was good． In addition，the strong upper － level trough with TSI greater than 0． 6 had an obvious monthly change，
and the amount of strong trough was more in winter and less in summer．

Key words: upper － level trough, TSI, AHP, test, monthly distribution

摘要：

利用2002 ～2010 年25°N ～35°N，110°E ～120°E 范围内的 NCEP 1° ×1° 500 hPa 高度场、涡度场和风场 6 h 再分析资料，运用层次分析法，构建出高空槽强度指数 TSI。结果表明，TSI 的大小与槽强度有很好的一致性，即 TSI 越大槽越强。TSI 不仅对槽有较好的指示意义，对脊也有一定的指示意义。其中当 TSI ＞0． 6 时，高空槽在该区域较明显;0． 35≤TSI≤0． 6 时，槽脊都不明显，即主要表现为一致的西风环流;TSI ＜0． 35 时，高空脊较为明显。利用 2011 年的数据对该指数进行检验，检验效果较好。另外，定量分析较强高空槽(TSI≥0． 6)的月分布规律发现，较强槽冬季较多而夏季较少。

关键词: 高空槽, TSI, 层次分析法, 检验, 月分布

CLC Number:

P434

ZHANG Yinghua，SHANG Kezheng，WANG Shigong，LI Deshuai，YE Peilong. The Construction and Quantitative Study of Upper － Level Trough Strength Index[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, DOI: 10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2014) －02 －0169.

张英华，尚可政，王式功，李德帅，叶培龙. 高空槽强度指数的构建及其定量化研究[J]. 干旱气象, DOI: 10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2014) －02 －0169.

References

［1］李侃，徐海明．西风带高空槽对登陆我国变性热带气旋的影响及其机理研究［J］．大气科学，2012，36(3):607 －618．

［2］许炳南．北半球两大长波槽的异常变化与贵州夏旱［J］．成都气象学院学报，1999，14(1):26 －31．

［3］Robort W． Upper － level structure of the formative tropical cyclone［J］． Monthly Weather Review，1966，94(1):9 －18．

［4］Ritchie E A，Elsberry R L． Simulations of the extratropical transi-tion of tropical cyclones:phasing between the upper － level trough and tropical cyclones［J］． Monthly Weather Review，2007，135(3):862 －876．

［5］曲晓黎，段宇辉，秦宝国，等．河北省中南部一次 MCC 造成的暴雨过程分析［J］．干旱气象，2011，29(1):69 －74．

［6］李文莉，王宝鉴，吉慧敏，等．河西干旱区短时强降水过程的中尺度分析［J］．干旱气象，2013，31(2):318 －326．

［7］孙云，李国翠，常山英，等．石家庄 2012 年夏季一次暴雨成因及可预报性分析［J］．干旱气象，2013，31(2):378 －382．

［8］闫军，聂晶鑫，辛尧胜，等． 2011 年 5 月宁夏久旱转透雨天气过程诊断［J］．干旱气象，2013，31(2):348 －353．

［9］张永莉，范广洲，周定文，等．冬半年南支槽的气候特征分析［J］．成都信息工程学院学报，2012，27(2):196 －201．

［10］杨桂英，章淹．冬季东亚大槽异常与 EINino 的关系［J］．应用气象学报，1999，5(1):114 －118．

［11］高建芸，余锦华，张秀芝，等．南海—西北太平洋季风槽强度变化的特征及其与热带气旋活动的关系［J］．热带气象学报，2011，27(1):63 －73．

［12］Saaty T L． A scaling method for priorities in hierarchical structures［J］． Journal of Mathematical Psychology，1997，15 (3):234 －281．

［13］金菊良，魏一鸣，丁晶．基于改进层次分析法的模糊综合评价模型［J］．水利学报，2004，3(3):65 －70．

［14］杜子璇，李宁，刘忠阳，等．层次分析法在下垫面因子影响沙尘暴危险度研究中的应用［J］．干旱区地理，2007，30(2):184 －188．

［15］姜大海，王式功，尚可政．沙尘暴危险度的定量评估研究［J］．中国沙漠，2011，31(6):1554 －1562．

[1]	PAN Weihua, YU Yongjiang, LUO Yanyan, ZHANG Linlin, YANG Zhiyong. Analysis of Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics of Atmospheric Precipitable Resources over Fujian Based on Groundbased GPS Data [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2021, 39(4): 577-584.
[2]	CHEN Hong, YU Wentao, XU Wei, YANG Xiaojun, SUN Jianyuan, CHEN Kaihua. Study and Application of Discriminant Criterion of Winter Precipitation Phase in Tianjin [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2021, 39(4): 670-677.
[3]	YANG Kan JI Xiaoling, MAO Lu, ZHANG Suzhao. Numerical Simulation and Comparative Analysis of Topographic Effects on Two Extraordinary Severe Flood Rainstorms in Helan Mountain [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(4): 581-590.
[4]	XING Nan, ZHAO Wei, FU Zongyu, WANG Yuanyuan, KANG Yanyan. Visibility Forecast in Beijing Based on Dynamically Multivariate Stepwise Regression Method [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(4): 665-673.
[5]	WANG Jie, QU Xiaoli, ZHANG Jinman. Characteristics of Expressway Traffic Accident and Meteorological Warning Model Based on Logistic Regression in Hebei Province [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(2): 339-345.
[6]	HAN Huibang, ZHANG Xiaojun, ZHANG Boyue, TIAN Jianbing, KANG Xiaoyan. Accuracy Test of Precipitable Water Vapor Retrieved by GPS Data and Its Variation Characteristic in Qaidam Basin [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(1): 50-57.
[7]	YAN Hui, ZHAO Guixiang. Diagnostic Analysis and Ensemble Forecast Test for a Heavy Rain in Shanxi Province#br# [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(1): 137-147.
[8]	BAI Qingshun, YAN Pengcheng, CAI Dihua, JIN Hongmei, FENG Guolin, ZHANG Tiejun. Inter-decadal Change Characteristics of Different Grades Drought in Northwest China in Recent 56 Years [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2019, 37(5): 722-728.
[9]	SUN Junkui, WANG Jiang, KANG Daojun, YAN Liping, ZHOU Xi. Precipitation Forecast of Wudongde Hydropower Station Based on SVM Model Optimized by Multiple Algorithms [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2019, 37(4): 670-675.
[10]	WANG Yilin, YAO Zhanyu, LIN Changcheng. Analysis of Radar Echoes at Different Heights Before and After Precipitation Enhancement [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2018, 36(4): 644-651.
[11]	ZHU Li, LIU Rong, WEN Jun, ZHAO Min, WANG Chaoying. Climate Change and Drought Evolution in the Tao River Basin in the Past 50 Years [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2018, 36(2): 234-242.
[12]	LIU Yuanpu, ZHANG Tiejun, DUAN Haixia, ZENG Dingwen, SONG Linlin, LI Yaohui. Evaluation on Forecast Effect of Basic Meteorological Elements of Northwest Mesoscale Numerical Prediction System [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2018, 36(2): 301-309.
[13]	LIANG Hua, LIU Yongqiang, QIN Sanjie, XU Zhilong,ZHANG Deyu, ZHAO Wen, MA Liang. Discussion of a Portable Maintenance and Testing Platform for New Generation Weather Radar [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2018, 36(1): 150-151.
[14]	CHEN Hong1, WEI Yinghua1, WANG Ying1, ZHANG Yuqing2, ZUO Tao1, XING Wenhui3. Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Runoff in Luanhe River Basin Based on VIC Hydrological Model [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2017, 35(5): 776-783.
[15]	. Test and Correction of CUACE in Air Quality Forecast in Lanzhou of Gansu Province [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2017, 35(3): 495-.