Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Drought/Flood in Linyi Based on Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) in Recent 51 Years

ZHANG Lei1PAN Jie2TAO Shengcai3ZHAO Funian3   

  1. 1. Linyi Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province,Linyi 276004,China;
    2. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;
    3. Jiuquan Meteorological Bureau of Gansu Province,Jiuquan 735000,China;
    4. Institute of Arid Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Lanzhou 730020,China
  • Online:2013-12-14 Published:2013-12-14

基于标准化降水指数的近 51 a山东临沂市旱涝时空特征

张磊1潘婕2陶生才3赵福年4   

  1. 1. 山东省临沂市气象局,山东 临沂 276004;
    2. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北 京 100081;
    3. 甘肃省酒泉市气象局,甘肃 酒泉 735000;
    4. 中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃 兰州 730020
  • 通讯作者: 潘婕(1975 - ),女,北京人,副研,博士,研究方向为气候变化. E - mail: panjie75@ ami. ac. cn
  • 作者简介:张磊(1986 - ),男,安徽安庆人,本科,助理工程师,主要从事农业气象方面工作. E - mail:15864992857@163. com
  • 基金资助:

    “十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题“综合气候变化影响与风险时空格局评估技术”(2012BAC19B10)资助

Abstract:

Based on the monthly precipitation data in Linyi during 1961 -2011 and the standard precipitation index,the spatial - tem-
poral characteristics of drought/flood in Linyi were analyzed. The results indicated that the flood was more severe in the early 1960s
and 1970s,and drought was more frequent in the late 1960s,the 1970s and in the whole 1980s,drought and flood manifested alter-
nately from the 1990s to the early 21st century. Occurence of drought in spring and winter tended to decrease weakly,while in autumn
tended to be more severe,there was no obvious change in summer. There was a relative consistence in variation of flood/drought in the
northern mountains’region,western hills’region and southern plains,but the change range of drought/flood in western hills was lager
than that in other two regions in the middle 1960s,the middle 1980s and the early 21st century. The most drastic drought/flood varia-
bility occurred in the early 21st century,and in the late 1970s,the variability was minimum. The variability in three regions was con-
sistent with that the whole city in the mass,but in southern plains the variability of flood/drought increased since 2004.

Key words: standard precipitation index(SPI), drought/flood, spatial - temporal characteristics, Linyi

摘要:

基于 1961 ~2011 年临沂市 10 个气象观测站的逐月降水数据,采用标准化降水指数(SPI),分析了临沂市旱涝时空分布特征。结果表明:临沂市旱涝变化具有阶段性特征,1960 年代初中期和1970 年代初中期,雨涝频繁;1960 年代中后期和 1970 年代中后期及整个 1980 年代,干旱频繁;1990年代到 21 世纪初早期旱涝交替发生,2003 年以后以雨涝为主。冬春季干旱呈弱的减轻趋势,秋旱呈弱加剧趋势,夏季旱涝变化趋势不明显。北部山区、西部丘陵、南部平原的旱涝变化总体上具有相对一致的趋势,但在 1960 年代中期、1980 年代中期、21 世纪初早期西部丘陵的旱涝变化幅度较其他 2个区域要大。全市旱涝变率在 21 世纪初早期最大,1970 年代中后期最小,3 个区域的变率总体上表现出与全市大致相同的趋势,2004 年以后南部平原旱涝变率持续增大。

关键词: 标准化降水指数(SPI), 旱涝, 时空特征, 临沂市

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