Improvement and Application of Forest Fire － danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province

doi:10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2013) －03 －0579

Journal of Arid Meteorology

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Improvement and Application of Forest Fire － danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province

FU Guiqin^1，3，ZHANG Wenzong^2，3，ZHAO Chunlei^2，3，ZHANG Jinman¹，GUO Rui¹

1． Meteorological Service Center of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China;
2． Institute of Meteorological Science of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China;
3． Key Laboratory for Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province，Shijiazhuang 050021，China

Received:2013-02-04 Revised:2013-05-14 Online:2013-09-30 Published:2013-09-30

河北省森林火险预报模式的改进及应用

付桂琴^１，３，张文宗^２，３，赵春雷^２，３，张金满^１，郭　蕊^１

1．河北省气象服务中心，河北石家庄 050021;
2．河北省气象科学研究所，河北石家庄 050021;
3．河北省气象与生态环境实验室，河北石家庄 050021

通讯作者: 张文宗(1956 － )，男，北京人，研究员，主要从事卫星遥感应用和环境气象研究． E － mail:hbqxzwz@ sina． com
作者简介:付桂琴(1968 － )，女，河北蔚县人，高级工程师，主要从事气象服务与应用气象研究． E － mail:fgq84@ tom． com
基金资助:
中国科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目:京津冀森林火灾遥感监测与精细化火险等级预报预警推广应用(2011GB24160003)资助

Abstract

Abstract:

The forecast model of forest fire － danger developed by Hebei Provincial Meteorological Bureau in 2003 has been well applied
in forecasting forest fire in Hebei Province for years． However，some problems still existed about the outputs of the model when they
were compared with the meteorological observation data． With the improvement of service requirements and the application of informa-
tion monitored by remote sensing，the model was needed to be improved and perfected． This paper addresses the improvement by
adding more forecast factors including soil moisture and heat source information monitored by MODIS satellite to the model． Firstly，by
using mathematical statistics method，the forecasting models of forest fire were built separately for the north forest and the southern
Taihang mountains forest of Heibei Province． Then，the forest fires occurred from January to May and from November to December of
2012 in Hebei were simulated by the improved and original forecast models of forest fire － danger，respectively． Finally，combined with
observations，the outputs obtained with the improved and original models were compared and analyzed． The results are as follows: The
original model exaggerated wildly the level of fire － danger compared with the the improved model; The probability of the fire － danger
with the level 4 or above obtained with the original model accounted for 41． 4%，which was much more than that of the improved model
(15． 0%)． The forecasting precision obtained from the improved model was 66． 3% at the level 5 and 83． 1% at the level 4 or above，
and 98． 6% at the level 3 or above． In all samples，the rate of false alarm at the level 5 was only 6． 8%． Consequently，the improved
model has a good application effect on forecasting forest fire．

Key words: forest fire － danger forecast model, improvement and application, effect test, Hebei Province

摘要：

采用数理统计的方法，增加了 MODIS 卫星遥感监测的土壤湿度和热源点预报因子，对河北省气象局原有的森林火险预报模式进行了改进，针对不同区域分别建立了森林火险预报模式，并对2012 年河北省森林火灾实际发生情况进行了分析和应用效果检验。结果表明，2012 年防火期，实况出现火灾，改进的火险模式预报森林火险气象等级 5 级为预报完全正确比率达 66． 3%;预报火险气象等级为 4 级(高度火险)及以上的正确率达 83． 1%;预报火险气象等级为 3 级(中度火险)及以上的正确率达 98． 8%;在所有的预报样本中，森林火险气象等级预报 5 级，但实况没有出现火灾的空报率为 6． 8%。检验结果显示，改进后的森林火险预报模式的应用效果更接近实际情况。

关键词: 森林火险预报模式, 改进和应用, 效果检验, 河北省

CLC Number:

S762． 2

FU Guiqin，ZHANG Wenzong，ZHAO Chunlei，ZHANG Jinman，GUO Rui. Improvement and Application of Forest Fire － danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province [J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, DOI: 10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2013) －03 －0579.

付桂琴，张文宗，赵春雷，张金满，郭　蕊. 河北省森林火险预报模式的改进及应用[J]. 干旱气象, DOI: 10． 11755/j． issn． 1006 －7639(2013) －03 －0579.

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Improvement and Application of Forest Fire － danger Forecast Model in Hebei Province

河北省森林火险预报模式的改进及应用

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