Abstract:

Meteorological elements such as temperature，humidity，precipitation and sunshine hours are the main factors affecting the
cultivation of Piteguo． In order to explore the suitability of temperature and humidity of Piteguo in Linxia of Gansu Province and establish
the forecasting model of suitability of temperature and humidity，Piteguo yield data and meteorological observation during the same
period were used in this paper． The climatic and ecological conditions in Piteguo planting region and influential factors of meteorological
elements were analyzed during different growing period of Piteguo，and the comprehensive index system for climatic － ecological adaptability
planting districts was established． The five growing periods of Piteguo from growth to fruit maturing were divided，and the multivariable
regression method was used to establish space － time dynamic forecasting model for each growing period and realize meteorological
yield forecast of Piteguo．

Key words: Piteguo, planting district, yield prediction

摘要：

温度、湿度、降水和日照时数等气象要素是啤特果栽培的主要影响因子。为了探索临夏州啤
特果的温、湿度适宜性和建立温、湿度适宜预测模型，利用临夏州啤特果产量数据和同期气象观测资
料，采用数理统计方法，分析了啤特果种植区域的气候生态条件及各生育期气象要素影响因子，建立
气候生态适生种植区划综合指标体系。并将啤特果从生长发育到果实成熟划分为5 个生育期，采用
多元回归方法，建立各生育期时空动态预测模式，实现啤特果产量气象预测。为临夏啤特果大力推广
栽培提供了科学依据。

关键词: 啤特果, 种植区划, 产量预测