Meteorological Prediction Model for Occurrence Degree f Aphis Gossypii in the Eastern Xinjiang

Abstract

Abstract:

Abstract:The development regulation of Aphis Gossypii and the relationship between meteorological factors and Aphis Gossypii occurrence from 2005 to 2009 in the Eastern Xinjiang were analyzed．Based on these study，the occurrence period of Aphis Gossypii in the otton field was divided into May，June，July to August three phase，daily occurrence degree prediction model of Aphis Gossypii were uilt by humidity temperature ratio，ten－day’s and monthly occurrence degree prediction model were built by average temperature．The accuracy test of 2009 showed that the accuracy of Aphis Gossypii simulation was fairly good，these formulas can be adopted to forecast the occurrence degree of Aphis Gossypii in the eastern Xinjiang．

Key words: Aphis gossypii, meteorological factors, prediction model

摘要：

分析2005～2008年东疆棉蚜的发生规律及其与气象因子的关系，将棉蚜在棉田的活动时间划分为5月、6月、7～8月3个阶段，运用湿温比构建棉蚜日发生等级的预测模型，运用气温构建棉蚜旬、月发生等级的预测模型。2009年棉蚜发生等级的检验结果表明，本文所模拟的预测模型准确率较高，可用于东疆地区棉蚜发生等级的预报。

关键词: 棉蚜, 气象因子, 预报模型

CLC Number:

S165⁺．28

MU Cai-Yun, CHE Gang, DAO Ran-·Jia-Mo-Yi, SHU Xiao-Hua. Meteorological Prediction Model for Occurrence Degree f Aphis Gossypii in the Eastern Xinjiang[J]. J4, 2010, 28(4): 489-493.

慕彩芸, 车罡, 道然·加帕依, 朱晓华. 新疆东疆棉蚜发生发展气象等级预报模型[J]. J4, 2010, 28(4): 489-493.

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