Abstract:

In the past 100 years，the weather forecast has passed three successful stages：Weather map stage；Long wave stage and numerical model stage.But the short climate prediction researches have not any successful stage in the past 100 years.However there are also three stages，Which just followed each weather forecast stages：Gross wetter lagestage，ultra-long wave stage and numerical climatic model stage.The author proposed that the first successful stage of short climate prediction should be materialized the“climate
system”.The geothermalvortexetc may be the materialized climate system and the“Diqi”map may be the equiform of weather map.

Key words: short weatherf orecasting, short climate prediction, comparison of developed roads, climate system materializing, “Diqi”map

摘要：

本文简短地比较了100a来短期天气预报和短期气候预测的发展道路。指出短期天气预报在经历了天气图阶段、长波阶段和数值预报阶段三大步之后已经发展到了相当成熟的地步。而短期气候预测100a来在“气候是天气的综合”错误思想的指导下，虽然也经历了与短期天气预报相应的几个阶段：大型天气学阶段、超长波阶段和短期气候预测的数值模式阶段，但每个阶段都以失败（或即将失败）而告终。使得短期气候预测水平始终在原地踏步。30a前提出了“气候系统”的概念，这是气候学的一次真正的进步。但“气候系统”至今仍是一个抽象概念，不像“天气系统”指的是气旋（低压）、反气旋（高压）、锋面等具体的物质系统。一旦“气候系统”被人们公认为一些具体的物质系统之后，短期气候预测即可成为“气候系统变化的预测”，此时短期气候预测通向成功的第一步———气候预测的“挪威学派”就诞生了。与天气图相应的，描述气候系统变化的一种四维图象也会应运而生。作者认为此图象很可能是“地气图”，而具体的气候系统很可能就是地热涡、地冷涡和形变锋等。

关键词: 短期天气预报, 短期气候预测, 发展道路对比, “气候系统”物质化, 地气图