J4 ›› 2010, Vol. 28 ›› Issue (2): 190-197.

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Snow Cover Variation and R/S Analysis in Altay Area of Xinjiang

ZHUANG Xiaocui1,2, GUO Cheng1,2 , ZHAO Zhengbo2, ZHANG Linmei1,2
  

  1. 1. Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA; Key Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province; Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climate Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou 730020, China; 2 Altay Meteorological Bureau, Altay 836500, China
  • Received:2009-11-05 Revised:2010-01-25 Online:2010-06-30 Published:2010-06-30

新疆阿勒泰地区积雪变化分析

庄晓翠1,2,郭 城1,2赵正波2张林梅1,2   

  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点试验室,中国气象局干旱气候变化
    与减灾重点开放试验室,甘肃 兰州 730020;2. 新疆阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆 阿勒泰 836500
  • 作者简介:庄晓翠(1964-),女,重庆市人,高级工程师,从事天气预报和气候变化及其相关工作的研究
  • 基金资助:

    兰州干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM200914),新疆气象局项目“阿勒泰地区气候变化与干旱研究”共同资助

Abstract:

Based on meteorological data including monthly maximum snow depth, snow cover days and snowfall days, the beginning and ending snowfall date, and winter average temperature, the highest and the lowest temperature, precipitation (1961-2008) obtained from 7 weather stations in Altay region, the snow cover variation was analyzed using linear trend, Mann-kendall test and R/S analytical methods.The results indicated that winter mean temperature presented significantly increasing trend, especially for the minimum temperature, and precipitation also increased. Snowfall and snow cover occurred early in September or October and ended in next April or May in most areas of Altay.The yearly mean maximum snow depth and snow cover days presented a single peak variation, and the maximum snow cover depth was in Altay station, the minimum value is in Fuhai station, snow cover days was miniimum in Fuhai and maximum in Jimunai, while snowfall days decreased from west to east. The maximum snow depth increased obviously, and the variation of snow cover and snowfall days were not so obvious, but some difference existed in spatial distribution. The snow cover days and the snowfall days decreased obviously. The abrupt change test indicated that in regional mean, the maximum snow depth changed abruptly in about 1983, which was consistent with winter precipitation change. R/S analysis indicated that the maximum snow depth, snow cover days and snowfall days would be anti-persistence in future, and the anti-persistence characteristic of mean snowfall days, the maximum snow depth in Fuhai, snow cover days in Jimunai, snowfall days in Buerjin would be strongest relatively.

摘要:

用阿勒泰地区7个测站1961-2008年逐月最大积雪深度、积雪和降雪日数及其初终日以及冬季(11至次年3月)平均气温、平均最高、最低气温及降水量资料,运用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall突变检验及R/S分析法对阿勒泰地区积雪变化进行了分析研究。结果表明:该地区冬季平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,最低气温的上升更为显著;降水量呈显著增多趋势。该地区大部地方积雪、降雪最早出现在9、10月,最迟在次年4-5月。历年平均最大积雪深度和积雪日数的年变化呈单峰型,降雪日数分布则较复杂;在空间分布上,积雪深度最大值在阿勒泰站,最小值在福海站;积雪日数福海站最少,吉木乃站最多;降雪日数自西向东逐渐减小。最大积雪深度呈显著的增加趋势、积雪和降雪日数趋势变化不显著,但在空间分布上有差异;受积雪和降雪初日推后的影响,积雪期和降雪期均呈显著的减少趋势。突变检测表明,就全区平均来说最大积雪深度在1983年前后发生了显著的突变,与冬季降水量的变化一致;平均积雪和降雪日数则比较稳定,没有发生显著的突变,各区域变化与全区不完全同步。R/S分析表明,最大积雪深度、积雪和降雪日数在未来具有反持续性;平均降雪日数、福海站最大积雪深度、吉木乃站积雪日数、布尔津站降雪日数的反持续性相对最强。

关键词: 积雪, 阿勒泰地区, 气候变化, R/S分析

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