J4 ›› 2009, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 288-293.

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EffectAnalysis on Interpretation ofExtrem e Temperature by ECMW F Products in Q ingyang

 TUN Ai-Min1,2, LU E-Ai2, LI Xiang-Ke2, ZHANG Hong-Fen2, XU  Yan2   

  1. (1. Institute of AridMeteorology, CMA, Key Laboratory ofClimate Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020, China;2. Qingyang Meteorologica lBureau of Gansu Province, Qingyang745000, China)
  • Received:2009-03-04 Revised:2009-07-23 Online:2010-09-30 Published:2009-09-30
  • About author:吴爱敏(1967-),女,河南温县人,高级工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报及服务.E-mail:qxjwam@sohu.com

利用产品对庆阳极端气温释用效果分析

吴爱敏1,2路亚奇李祥科张洪芬徐 燕   

  1. 1.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所,甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,
    甘肃 兰州 730020;2.甘肃庆阳市气象局,甘肃 庆阳 745000
  • 基金资助:

    甘肃省气象局多模式气温释用及预报集成项目(2009-07)资助

Abstract:

The predictionmodel for the highestand lowest temperature is established by the CMSVM regressionmethod based on ECMWF data and the extreme temperature observations from 8 automaticweather stations inQingyang ofGansu Province from 2003 to2007.The effect test in 2008 operation forecast indicated that the rate ofaverage forecastaccuracy is64% and 71% for the highestand lowest temperature in 5 days, which has the good instruction for the real-timeweather service. The forecast accuracy rate of the highest and lowest temperature decreased with the forecast time increase, and the accuracy rate for the lowest temperature is higher than thatof the highest temperature. The forecast effect for the lowest temperature is better in spring and summer than that in autume and winter, but it is opposite for the highest temperature. The absolute and the average forecasterrors for the highestand lowest temperature are added with the forecast time increase, and the absolute forecasterror for the highest temperature is bigger than thatof the lowestbut the average error is close and positive. The forecast effect test in Septemper of 2008 indicated that the forecast values presented the similar trend to real time observations for the highest and lowest temperature.

Key words: ECMWF Products, the extreme temperature, interpretation, effect analysis

摘要:

利用CMSVM的回归方法,用2003~2007年的欧洲数值预报格点资料和庆阳市8个自动站极端气温资料建立最高最低气温预报模型。2008年业务运行效果检验评估表明: 5 d最高、最低气温综合平均预报准确率达到64%和71%,对实时业务有较好的指导作用。最高、最低气温准确率随着预报时效的延长效果降低,最低比最高气温的预报准确率高。最低气温预报效果春夏季好于秋冬季,最高气温相反。最高、最低气温绝对误差和平均误差都预报时效的延长增大,最高比最低气温平均绝对误差大,二者的平均误差接近,均为正值,预报值具有偏高的倾向。对9月明显变化过程的评估表明,最高最低气温预报与实况演变的趋势相似。

关键词: 欧洲预报, 极端气温, 释用, 效果分析

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