Abstract:

Three wide range cold waves occurred in winter of 2008 in Hebei Province, which were the most in the past 10 years, especially the cold wave appeared from 3 to 5 December 2008 was serious at the same period in the history. In this paper, the observed and forecasted by numerical p rediction p roducts including T213 and EC were compared from the atmospheric circulation features, intensity and moving path of the cold air and weather elements, etc. in order to test the capability of forecasting cold wave based on different numericalweather p rediction p roducts, and offermore forecasting reference in future. The results suggest that both T213 and EC can forecast the typ ical characteristics of cold wave outbreak, but T213 has a higher temporal and spatial resolution, and would bemore help in imp roving refined cold wave weather forecast.．

Key words: numerical prediction p roducts, cold wave forecast, capability test

摘要：

2008年冬季,河北省连续3次出现了大范围的寒潮天气过程,为近10 a来之最。特别是2008年12月3～5日为历史同期最严重的一次寒潮天气过程。从3次过程的大气环流特征、冷空气强度及影响路径、要素特征等方面分析比较T213和欧洲数值预报产品( EC)与实况的异同,检验不同数值预报产品对寒潮天气过程的预报能力,为以后更准确地预报寒潮天气提供一定的参考依据。分析结果表明: T213和EC数值预报产品都能预报出寒潮爆发的典型特征,而T213具有更高的时空密度,对提高寒潮天气的精细化预报水平有更大帮助。

关键词: 数值预报产品, 寒潮预报}能力检验