Abstract:

Gansu Province is one of China’s three national-level seed maize breeding bases, with the Hexi Corridor being a major production area for seed maize. Under climate warming, frequent regional high temperature events seriously threaten the high and stable yield of seed maize. Therefore, heat disaster prevention for seed maize is crucial to national seed industry development and food security. Using daily and hourly temperature data from 14 meteorological stations in the main seed maize producing areas of the Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province during 2004-2025, combined with seed maize yield data, this study determined high temperature damage indicators for seed maize, analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of heat damage, constructed a high temperature damage risk assessment index, and carried out risk zoning. The results show that the heat damage indicators considering daily high temperature duration have a stronger correlation with meteorological yield. The high temperature days, defined as days with a daily cumulative high temperature （≥35 ℃） duration greater than or equal to 4 hours, and the corresponding high temperature accumulated heat were selected as the hazard factors of high temperature heat damage. From 2004 to 2025, both high temperature days and high temperature accumulated heat generally showed an increasing trend with obvious interannual variations in the main seed maize production areas, and their spatial distribution decreased from the northwest to the southeast. Based on the high temperature heat damage risk assessment index, risk zoning was carried out. The extremely high-risk and high-risk areas of seed maize heat damage in the Hexi Corridor are mainly concentrated in Guazhou County and Jinta County of Jiuquan City, Ganzhou District, Gaotai County and Linze County of Zhangye City, Jinchuan District of Jinchang City, and Minqin County of Wuwei City. Counties and districts with large planting areas should strengthen targeted prevention measures against high temperature heat damage.

Key words: the Hexi Corridor, seed maize, high temperature damage, risk zoning

摘要：

甘肃省是中国三大国家级玉米制种基地之一，河西走廊是制种玉米的主要产区。受气候变暖影响，区域高温事件频发，严重威胁制种玉米高产稳产。利用甘肃省河西地区制种玉米主产区14个气象观测站2004—2025年逐日、逐时气温资料及制种玉米产量资料，确定制种玉米高温热害指标，分析热害时空分布特征，构建制种玉米高温热害风险评估指数并进行风险区划。结果表明：综合日高温时长的热害指标与气象产量的相关性更强，因此以35 ℃及以上日高温时长≥4 h的高温日数及对应高温积热作为高温热害致灾因子指标；2004—2025年制种玉米主产区高温日数和高温积热整体呈增加趋势，年际变化幅度大，空间分布上整体呈西北向东南减少的趋势；根据高温热害风险评估指数进行风险区划，河西走廊制种玉米高温热害极高和高风险区主要分布在酒泉市瓜州县、金塔县，张掖市甘州区、高台县、临泽县，金昌市金川区，武威市民勤县等地，种植面积较大的县区需加强对高温热害的防范。

关键词: 河西走廊, 制种玉米, 高温热害, 风险区划