Risk assessment of low temperature disaster in winter for facility agriculture in Henan Province

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-04-0667

Abstract

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to improve utilization rate of climate resources and reasonably optimize layout of winter facility agriculture in Henan Province. Based on daily minimum temperature data from 113 national meteorological stations during 1981-2018 in Henan Province, the mathematical statistics method was used to calculate standard deviation of minimum temperature in winter and climatic probability, frequency and occurrence intensity of different low temperature disaster indices. The low temperature risk index of facility agriculture was constructed by using the equal weight method. The low temperature risk levels of facility agriculture were classified using the optimal clustering method of ordered samples combined with low temperature disaster data, and the risk assessment was conducted using the risk level combined with land-cover data. The results show that the climatic probability and occurrence frequency of low temperature disaster (less than or equal to -5 ℃ ) in all parts of Henan Province are more than 0.80, so it is not suitable for development of small plastic arch sheds, and it is not suitable to use single-layer plastic greenhouses for facility agricultural production. The climatic probability and occurrence frequency of temperature less than or equal to -10 ℃ in both Xinyang and southern Nanyang are less than 0.20, it is suitable for development of plastic greenhouses. The climatic probability and occurrence frequency of temperature less than or equal to -10 ℃ in Hebi, Anyang and Puyang are all more than 0.80, so in these regions solar greenhouses should be developed to ensure crop growth in facilities. In the plastic greenhouse development area, Gushi County and Shangcheng County of Xinyang are mild risk areas for low temperature disasters, most of Xinyang, parts of Nanyang and Zhoukou are moderate risk areas, and all other areas are severe risk areas. In the solar greenhouse development areas, Puyang, Anyang and parts of Hebi are areas with high risk of low temperature disasters. Therefore, the low temperature disaster risk of different levels in Henan Province in winter has a certain regional pattern. Arrangements on planning of facility agriculture should be done in different regions according to local low temperature disaster risks.

Key words: facility agriculture, low temperature in winter, disaster index, risk assessment, optimal clustering of ordered samples

摘要：

为了提高气候资源利用率，合理优化河南省冬季设施农业布局，利用1981—2018年河南省113个国家气象站冬季逐日最低气温资料，采用数理统计方法计算冬季年最低气温标准差和不同低温灾害指标的气候概率、发生频率、发生强度，并采用等权重法构建设施农业低温风险指数，结合低温灾情资料，选用有序样本最优聚类法划分设施农业低温风险等级，且叠加地表覆盖数据进行低温灾害风险评估。结果表明：河南省各地冬季低温灾害指标小于等于-5 ℃的气候概率和发生频率均超过0.80，不适宜发展塑料小拱棚，且不宜采用单层塑料大棚进行设施农业生产。信阳和南阳南部小于等于-10 ℃的气候概率和发生频率均小于0.20，适宜发展塑料大棚;鹤壁、安阳和濮阳小于等于-10 ℃的气候概率和发生频率均超过0.80，需发展日光温室才能保证设施作物生长。在塑料大棚发展区内，信阳市固始县和商城县为低温灾害轻度风险区，信阳大部、南阳部分区域和周口为中度风险区，其他地区均为重度风险区;在日光温室发展区内，濮阳、安阳和鹤壁部分区域为低温灾害特重风险区。河南省冬季各地不同等级的低温灾害风险有一定的区域性，在发展设施农业时，应因地制宜进行科学布局。

关键词: 设施农业, 冬季低温, 灾害指数, 风险评估, 有序样本最优聚类

CLC Number:

S16
P421.11

LE Zhangyan, SHI Minghua, LI De, HUO Zhiguo, DU Zixuan, TAN Yanjing. Risk assessment of low temperature disaster in winter for facility agriculture in Henan Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2022, 40(4): 667-676.

乐章燕, 石茗化, 李德, 霍治国, 杜子旋, 檀艳静. 河南省设施农业冬季低温灾害风险评估[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(4): 667-676.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig.1 Distribution of topography (color shaded area，Unit：m) and national meteorological observation stations in Henan Province

Tab.1 The low temperature disaster index for large (small) plastic greenhouses and solar greenhouses under different insulation measures

设施类型	覆盖方式	低温灾害指标I_t/℃
塑料小拱棚	2层膜	I_t≤-3.0
塑料大拱棚	3层膜	I_t≤-5.0
塑料大拱棚	1层毡布+2层膜	I_t≤-8.0
日光温室	1层毡布	I_t≤-10.0
	1层毡布+1层膜	I_t≤-12.0
	1层棉被+1层毡布+1层膜	I_t≤-15.0

Fig.2 Temporal and spatial distribution of climate probability (a， e)， occurrence frequency (b， f)， occurrence intensity (c， g) and climate trends of occurrence days (d， h) of low temperature disaster index less than or equal to -3.0 ℃ (a， b， c， d) and -5.0 ℃ (e， f， g， h) in Henan Province in winter during 1981-2018

Fig.3 Temporal and spatial distribution of climate probability (a， e)， occurrence frequency (b， f)， occurrence intensity (c， g) and climate trends of occurrence days (d， h) of low temperature disaster index less than or equal to -8.0 ℃ (a， b， c， d) and -10.0 ℃ (e， f， g， h) in Henan Province in winter during 1981-2018

Fig.4 Temporal and spatial distribution of climate probability (a， e)， occurrence frequency (b， f)， occurrence intensity (c， g) and climate trends of occurrence days (d， h) of low temperature disaster index less than or equal to -12.0 ℃ (a， b， c， d) and -15.0 ℃ (e， f， g， h) in Henan Province in winter during 1981-2018

Tab.2 The grade classification of low temperature disaster risk index of facility agriculture in winter in Henan Province

低温灾害风险指数M		风险等级
塑料大棚	日光温室	风险等级
M<0.15	M<0.18	无
0.15≤M<0.33	0.18≤M<0.36	轻度
0.33≤M<0.52	0.36≤M<0.50	中度
0.52≤M<0.76	0.50≤M<0.66	重度
M≥0.76	M≥0.66	特重

Fig.5 The risk distribution of low temperature disaster in plastic greenhouses (a) and solar greenhouse (b) in winter in Henan Province

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