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基于FloodArea模型的洪安涧河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

张亚琳1安炜1李毓富2茅彧1赵海燕1   

  1. 1.山西省气候中心,山西太原030006;2.山西晋城市气象局,山西晋城048026
  • 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04
  • 作者简介:张亚琳(1988— ),女,山西运城人,硕士,工程师,主要从事气候分析和气候变化研究. E-mail:zhangyalin229@163.com。
  • 基金资助:

    山西省气象局项目“基于FloodArea的山西山洪沟暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划研究”(SXKMSQH20185116)资助

Rainstorm Flood Disaster Risk Zoning in Honganjian River Basin Based on FloodArea Model

ZHANG Yalin1, AN Wei 1, LI Yufu2, MAO Yu1, ZHAO Haiyan1   

  1. 1. Shanxi Climate Center, Taiyuan 030006, China;
    2. Jincheng Meteorological Service, Jincheng 048026, Shanxi, China
  • Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04

摘要:

为直观反映暴雨洪涝灾害的淹没情景,及时有效地提供流域内的暴雨洪涝风险区划信息,采用洪安涧河流域气象站历史降水序列,结合致灾临界面雨量阈值和历史灾情数据,使用广义极值分布函数等,确定了不同重现期的致洪面雨量,采用FloodArea水文模型推演了洪水淹没的情景,并结合承灾体绘制了流域在不同重现期下的暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划图,提取了不同重现期和不同淹没深度下承灾体的受灾信息。结果表明:随着淹没水深的加深,人口和GDP受灾占比呈阶梯向上变化,而耕地和居民地受灾面积占比均呈明显对数函数关系增长;随着重现期的增大,流域洪涝灾害的危险程度逐渐加重,较高风险区分布在河道及中下游河道两侧蔓延处等区域,承灾体在低风险区的受灾占比最大(超过80%),极高风险区占比次之,中、高风险区占比最小。

关键词: FloodArea, 洪安涧河, 暴雨洪涝, 风险区划

Abstract:

In order to express the submerged scene of rainstorm flood disaster directly and provide rainstorm flood disaster risk zoning information timely and effectively, this paper determined the areal precipitation thresholds of rainstorm flood disaster for different recurrence periods by using the historical precipitation series, disaster critical rainfall threshold and historical disaster data in the Honganjian River Basin as its primary data by means of generalized extreme value distribution function and so on. After it simulated the inundation range and submerged depth in the Honganjian River Basin for different recurrence periods through the FloodArea model, this paper drew the rainstorm flood disaster risk zoning diagrams combined with hazard bearing body and then extracted disaster information of hazard bearing body under different simulated flood depth for different recurrence periods. The results show that as the water deepens depth increased, the affected proportion of the population and GDP changed upwards in a step-by-step manner, while the affected areas proportion of cultivated land and settlement place presented a significant logarithmic function growth. With the recurrence period increasing, the danger degree of rainstorm flood disaster was gradually increasing, and the middle and high risk areas mainly distributed in the regions like the river channel and both sides of the river in middle and lower reaches. The affected proportion in the low risk area was the largest (more than 80%), the proportion of extremely high risk area was the second, and medium and high risk areas accounted for the smallest proportion.

Key words: FloodArea, Honganjian River Basin, rainstorm flood disaster, risk zoning

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