• CN 62-1175/P
• ISSN 1006-7639
• 双月刊
• 中国科技核心期刊
• 中国学术期刊综合评价数据库统计源期刊
• 中文科技期刊数据库收录期刊

• 论文 •

### 中尺度集合预报对川渝地区“8.16”暴雨过程的分析

1. 1.重庆市气象科学研究所，重庆401147；2.重庆市气象台，重庆401147
• 出版日期:2018-09-04 发布日期:2018-09-04
• 作者简介:高松（1987— ），男，江苏扬州人，工程师，硕士，主要从事数值天气预报研究. E-mail:gaosongnuist@126.com。
• 基金资助:

重庆市气象局业务技术攻关团队-数值预报应用技术团队项目（YWGGTD-201715）、重庆市气象局青年基金项目（QNJJ-201702）、重庆市气象局“十二五”重大建设项目“引进先进精细化业务系统” 子项目“高性能计算机系统和数值预报系统”（2016-2019）、气象预报业务关键技术发展专项子项目“西南地区复杂地形对局地突发性暴雨影响研究（YBGJXM（2018）1A-08）、重庆市超算服务平台项目（cstc2015ptfw-ggfw120002）”共同资助

### Analysis of “8.16” Rainstorm in Sichuan-Chongqing Region by Using Mesoscale Ensemble Forecasting System

GAO Song1, FANG Dexian 1, CHEN Guichuan2,CHEN Lianglü1, WU Zheng1

1. 1.Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Chongqing 401147, China;
2.Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147, China
• Online:2018-09-04 Published:2018-09-04

Abstract:

Abstract:Based on ARPS and WRF model, a mesoscale ensemble forecasting system with multi-initial conditions and multi-physical processes was established on the basis of different physical parameterization schemes. Moreover, a southwest low-vortex rainstorm process in the Sichuan basin which occurred from August 16 to 18, 2015 was analyzed with the above system. The results indicate that this ensemble system could well predict the heavy rainfall. Some ensemble products, such as ensemble mean and ensemble probability had better forecast skills for the rainstorm compared with the deterministic forecasts. The ensemble forecast of initial value perturbations was optimal to rainstorm and below, while that of physical process scheme was optimal to heavy rainstorm and above. The ensemble forecast considering two kinds of perturbation was better than that of single perturbation, which significantly improved the forecast of precipitation. The forecast differences of weather systems (upper trough, low-vortex, shear line) and meteorological elements (wind field, water vapor) between the “good” and “bad” clusters of ensemble members were the key factors on the forecast skills. In addition, the physical processes and initial values were more sensitive to the disturbance of the low-level (especially the forecast of wind field) than that of high-level. The ensemble forecast had a significant positive contribution to the forecast skills of heavy rain and above. However, the forecast of extraordinary storm was very uncertain, and there was still a large space for improvement.

﻿