关键词: 环境变化, 径流, Mann-Kendall法, 有序聚类, VIC水文模型

Abstract:

Based on the runoff data of the Luanhe hydrological station from 1971 to 2000, the Mann-kendall method and the ordinal clustering analysis method were applied to analyze the mutation of hydrological sequence from the Luanxian hydrological station in Tianjin. In order to study the simulation results of VIC (variable infiltration capacity) hydrological model about the Luanhe River runoff and quantitatively analyze the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff of the Luanhe River Basin, the hydrological model was used to reconstruct the runoff. The simulation results show that the year of 1980 was a catastrophe point of the runoff. So the duration of 1971-1979 could be served as the base period for the runoff sequence of the basin.VIC hydrological model simulation was better at this stage, and the simulated flow process line was more consistent with the natural runoff process. However, the deterministic coefficient of simulated monthly runoff decreased due to climate change and the underlying surface change caused by human activities after 1980. More prominent was that the simulated results during the high water period were not good. In the 1980s, the simulation results of the model were better, and only the simulation of the wet period in 1988 was slightly smaller. However, since the 1990s, the simulation results of the model in wet years were significantly smaller. The impact of climate change on the Luanhe River Basin runoff was 54.9% and that of human activities was 45.1%. Thus, human activities should not be ignored.

Key words: environmental change, runoff, Mann-Kendall test, orderd cluster, VIC hydrological model