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阶段性动态风险评估方法在暴雨灾害风险评估中的应用


张玮玮1王颖1许浩恩2俞布3   

  1. 1.浙江省气象服务中心,浙江杭州310017;2.浙江省气象台,浙江杭州310017;3.浙江省杭州市气象局,浙江杭州310051
  • 出版日期:2017-08-31 发布日期:2017-08-31
  • 作者简介:张玮玮(1983—),女,硕士,江苏盐城人,工程师,主要从事应用气象灾害风险评估. E-mail:zhangweiwei1125@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    杭州市财政建设项目——杭州城市气候规划基础研究项目资助

Application of Periodic and Dynamic Risk Assessment Method on Rainstorm Disaster Risk Assessment

ZHANG Weiwei1, WANG Ying1, XU Haoen2, YU Bu3   

  1. 1. Zhejiang Meteorological Service Centre, Hangzhou 310017, China;
    2. Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017, China;
    3. Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou 310051, China
  • Online:2017-08-31 Published:2017-08-31

摘要:

灾害动态风险评估是对风险评估方法的一次改进,通过对灾害过程的不同阶段分别开展风险分析,将气象灾害的风险分析从气候特征评价向天气过程评价转化,以更好地应用于动态风险预警。以杭州暴雨灾害为例,将灾害性天气风险评估过程划分为灾前预评估、灾中实时评估、灾后调查评估3个阶段,利用灰色关联模型界定杭州暴雨致灾因子的评价指标,同时基于模糊综合评价方法构建灾害风险评估模型,进而形成一整套阶段性动态风险评估流程。最后,结合1509号台风暴雨过程进行实例分析,并分别给出3个阶段的评估检验结果。结果显示灾后评估结果与灾中评估的一致性高达76.0%,而与灾前预评估的一致性仅为49.0%,说明灾中评估的开展可以有效修正预评估结果。随着动态风险评估流程模型的业务化运行,将会实现针对整个灾害过程的滚动加密评估,从而进一步提升风险评估结果的可靠性。

关键词: 动态风险, 灾前预评估, 灾中实时评估, 灾后调查评估

Abstract:

Dynamic risk evaluation is an improvement of risk assessment method. It is conducive to turn the climate background to weather process, and it is used for dynamic risks pre-warning. Taking rainstorm disasters in Hangzhou as examples, according to severe weather processes, dynamic risk assessment processes were divided into the risk pre-assessment, the real-time risk assessment and the risk assessment based on investigation. The grey correlation model was used to define hazard-forming factors indicators of the rainstorm, then risk assessment model was constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Finally, the rainstorm process of the typhoon 1509 was analyzed, and evaluation results were presented according to pre-assessment, the real-time risk assessment and the risk assessment based on investigation. Results show that the consistency was up to 76.0% between the risk assessment result based on investigation and the real-time risk assessment result, but only 49.0% between the risk assessment result based on investigation and the risk pre-assessment result. It’s shown that the real-time assessment could effectively correct disaster assessment for the pre-assessment. With the operational running of the dynamic risk assessment model, the rolling encryption evaluation of the entire disaster process will be realized, thus further reliability of the risk assessment results was improved.

Key words: the dynamic risks, the pre-assessment of disaster, real-time assessment of disaster, assessment of disaster based on investigation

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