关键词: 三峡库区, RegCM4, CCLM, 降水, RCP4.5情景

Abstract:

Based on the daily precipitation grid data during 1961-2005 in the Three Gorges area, the ability of the RegCM4 driven by the BCC_CSM1.1 and CCLM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR to simulate the annual precipitation and extreme precipitation was examined. According to the simulation data of regional climate model which were closer to the observations, the changes of precipitation were projected in the Three Gorges area during 2016-2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The results show that the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation and rainstorm days simulated by the RegCM4 and CCLM were in accord with the observations, but the RegCM4 and CCLM underestimated the annual mean precipitation and rainstorm days in the southeast of the Three Gorges area during 1986-2005. The RegCM4 and CCLM badly simulated the rainstorm intensity in the Three Gorges area. On the whole, the precipitation simulated by the CCLM was closer to the observations than that by the RegCM4. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the change of annual precipitation simulated by the CCLM would not be obvious during 2016-2050, while the annual rainstorm days over the whole basin would increase 1.2 days compared with the observations during 1986-2005.

Key words: the Three Gorges area, RegCM4, CCLM, precipitation, RCP4.5 scenario