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全球人类活动对气候影响强度的定量评估

  

  1. 半干旱气候变化教育部重点实验室,兰州大学大气科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000
  • 出版日期:2017-04-30 发布日期:2017-04-30
  • 通讯作者: 黄建平(1962- ),男,福建漳平人,教授,主要从事半干旱气候变化研究. E-mail:hjp@lzu.edu.cn
  • 作者简介:张艳婷(1990- ),女,河北沧州人,硕士研究生,主要从事人类活动和荒漠化研究. E-mail:zhangyt11@lzu.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家基金委“半干旱气候变化”创新群体项目(41521004)资助

Quantitative Assessment of Global Human Activity’s Influence on Climate

  1. Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education, College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • Online:2017-04-30 Published:2017-04-30

摘要:

人类活动对气候影响强度的定量评估是分析人类活动对于生态环境、气候变化影响的基础。然而,由于人类活动包含的内容广泛、全球可供评价的指标数据有限、权重系数难以确定等因素,目前尚缺乏对于全球人类活动强度定量评估的指数。本研究选取人口密度、人口增长、CO2排放量、GDP作为衡量人类活动对气候影响强度的指标,采用客观权重法定量分析1995—2010年间全球人类活动强度的分布和变化趋势。结果表明,全球大部分地区人口增长在人类活动强度指数中所占权重最大,亚洲东部及印度、欧洲西部和北美洲东部等地区,人类活动强度明显大于其他地区。1995—2010年,由于人口增加、CO2加剧排放等原因,致使全球大部分地区的人类活动强度呈现增加趋势。

关键词: 人类活动强度, 全球分布, 客观权重法, 定量评估

Abstract:

The quantitative assessment of human activity’s influence on climate is the foundation to analyze the impact of human activity on ecology environment and climate change. However, the human activity covers a broad range, the related data are limited and their weight coefficients are difficult to ascertain, which causes the lack of index to assess the global human activity intensity. In this paper, we attempt to build up the human activity index based on population density, population growth, emission of CO2 and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) to evaluate the influence of human activity on climate. And on this basis the spatial distribution and temporal change of global human activity intensity during 1995-2010 were analyzed by using the objective weighting method of CRITIC (Criteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation). The results show that the weight of population growth in human activity intensity index for most regions of the global was the maximum. Human activity intensity in east of Asian, India, west of Europe, east of North America was obviously larger than that in other regions. Human activity intensity showed an increasing trend in most regions of the global during 1995-2010 due to the increase of population and CO2 emission.

Key words: human activity intensity, global distribution, objective weighting method, quantitative assessment

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