关键词: 儿童哮喘, 气温, 广义相加模型, 相对危险度

Abstract:

Asthma is a chronic respiratory inflammatory disease presenting predominantly in children, which is easy to recur due to the weather influence. In order to analyze the effect of air temperature on childhood asthma, and to provide customized, individualized forecast service, according to the 0-14 years old patients who had childhood asthma from 2012 to 2014 and the corresponding air temperature data of Shijiazhuang, the exposure and response relation between them was analyzed by using the semi parametric Generalized Additive Model (GAM) based on time series after controlling the confounding effect of time trend, barometric pressure and relative humidity. The results suggest that the infants who are 0-6 years old were prone to get childhood asthma, with a proportion of 76.5%, and male patients accounted for 70.2%, which was much more than female patients. The total number of children patients peaked in winter, followed by the seasonal transformation period in spring and autumn, and reached its lowest in summer, while the reaction to temperature varies according to the age: the infants (who are 0-6 years old) were more sensitive to chill while juveniles (who are 7-14 years old) were more sensitive to heat. The impact index of daily mean temperature (T) to the number of childhood asthma patients was as follows: the total number of patients increased 3‰ for every degree the air temperature rose when 2.9 ℃21.0 ℃, they were obviously more sensitive. The results have certain significance to providing meteorological condition forecasting and technical defense service for childhood asthma.

Key words: childhood asthma, air temperature, generalized additive model, relative risk