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山东省夏季降水与大气环流型关系分析

滕华超   

  1. 山东省气候中心,山东 济南 250031
  • 出版日期:2016-11-01 发布日期:2016-11-01
  • 作者简介:滕华超(1986- ),男,山东荣成人,硕士,工程师,主要从事气候变化服务与研究工作. E-mail:thc_sdqx@163.com
  • 基金资助:

    山东省气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2012sdqx10、2015sdqxm06)共同资助

Shandong Climate Center, Ji’nan 250031, China

TENG Huachao   

  1. Shandong Climate Center, Ji’nan 250031, China
  • Online:2016-11-01 Published:2016-11-01

摘要:

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)逐日海平面气压场(MSLP)再分析资料和山东省122个台站逐日降水资料,采用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法,将1958—2013年逐日海平面气压场分型,分析不同时间尺度下影响山东省的主要大气环流型出现频率分布特征,对山东省夏季降水与大气环流型关系进行初步研究,给出夏季各类环流型降水概率、降水强度及降水贡献率的时间变化特征。结果表明:(1)山东省全年主要环流型为SW、NE、A、SE、S、NW、N和C型;(2)8种主要环流型中,NE、NW、A和N型的出现频率在夏季为“低谷期”,冬季为“高峰期”,而SW、SE、C和S型则与之相反;(3)S、SE、SW、C型是夏季主要降水环流型,但是某些较为少见的环流型出现时,出现降水的概率非常大,可以为预报员提供参考;(4)夏季4种主要降水环流型的降水贡献率时间变化特征存在明显差异,S型和SE型呈现准周期振荡,SW型自1980年代以后持续降低,2011年以来仅为4%左右,为历史最低;1970年代以来,C型降水贡献率持续增加,由不足10%增至21%。

关键词: Lamb-Jenkinson, 客观环流分型, 山东, 夏季降水

Abstract:

Based on ECMWF MSLP reanalysis dataset and daily precipitation in 122 weather stations in Shandong Province, the Lamb-Jenkinson circulation classification scheme was applied to obtain circulation types in Shandong Province. The frequencies of circulation types under different time scales were computed and described, and the relationship between circulation types and summer precipitation in Shandong Province was studied preliminary. The probability of precipitation, precipitation intensity and contribution rates of all circulation types to summer precipitation were given out, and the temporal characteristics of precipitation contribution rates of four major circulation types in summer were analyzed. The results show that the dominant circulation types the whole year in Shandong were SW, NE, A, SE, S, NW, N and C type, among them, the occurrence frequencies of NE, NW, A and N type in summer were smaller, while in winter they were larger, but for SW, SE, C and S type, they were opposite compared to the former. There were 3 984 rainy days in summer of Shandong from 1958 to 2013, the S, SE, SW and C circulation types occurred more than 500 days, and their contribution rate to summer precipitation was beyond 10%, so they were major circulation types for summer precipitation. The temporal characteristics of precipitation contribution of four major circulation types in summer were obviously different, for S and SE type it presented quasi-periodic oscillation, while for SW type, it decreased continuously since the 1980s, and the lowest contribution occurred in 2011(4%), but for  C type, it increased since the 1970s and run up to 21%.

Key words:  Lamb-Jenkinson circulation classification, Shandong, summer precipitation

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