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河北廊坊“恒温”天气特征及其可预报性分析

郭立平1,乔林2,李成才3,周玉都1   

  1. 1.河北省廊坊市气象局,河北廊坊065000;
    2.北京市气象局,北京100089;
    3.北京大学物理学院,北京100871
  • 出版日期:2016-02-29 发布日期:2016-02-29
  • 作者简介:郭立平(1970-),女,河北秦皇岛人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事天气预报和预报技术研究. E-mail:ggllpplf@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    廊坊市气象局2014年项目“廊坊市异常温度分布时空特征及本地预报指标探索”(201405)和廊坊市科技局项目“基于物联网的雾霾及空气污染气象条件预报预警技术研究”(2014013004B)共同资助

Weather Characteristics of Constant Temperature and Its Predictability Analysis in Langfang City

GUO Liping1QIAO Lin2LI Chengcai 3ZHOU Yudu1   

  1. 1.Langfang Meteorological Bureau of Hebei Province, Langfang 065000, China;
    2.Beijing MeteorologicalBureau, Beijing 100089, China;
    3.School of Physics, Peking University,Beijing 100871, China
  • Online:2016-02-29 Published:2016-02-29

摘要:

利用河北省廊坊市气象观测站2000~2014年常规观测资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和倾斜旋转T模态主成分分析法,在分析廊坊“恒温”天气的天气气候、大气环流形势特征的基础上,探讨了“恒温”天气的可预报性,并通过一个“恒温”天气预报个例对其可预报性进行验证。结果表明:廊坊“恒温”天气主要发生在秋冬季,以阴沉(日照时数<1 h)、有雾或雨雪天气、小风(地面风力等级为1~2级)以及偏东风或西南风为主要气象环境背景;“恒温”天气产生时,尽管各气象要素条件特征显著,但发生比例仅为1.5%~13%,其中地面风力等级为1~2级气象条件下最低,在阴天伴雨或雪的气象条件下相对最高;当廊坊市500 hPa上空为西南、偏西气流控制,地面处于辐合场、高压场底部和高压场后部时最利于“恒温”天气产生;依据“恒温”天气产生的各类气象条件,将大气环流形势场与各气象要素条件进行匹配筛选,可明显降低“恒温”天气的极端性分布,对其进行准确预报成为可能。

关键词: “恒温”, 天气特征, 倾斜旋转T模态主成分分析法, 极端性, 可预报性

Abstract:

Based on the conventional data of Langfang meteorological observation station from 2000 to 2014 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the weather and climate characteristics as well as the circulation situations of constant temperature weather occurring in Langfang city were analyzed by using the obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis (PCA) firstly, then the predictability about constant temperature weather was discussed, which was tested through a constant temperature weather case forecast. The results show that the constant temperature weather mainly occurred in autumn and winter, and the background weather conditions included gloomy (sunshine hours less than one hour), fog and rain or snow weather, small wind speed (surface wind scale ranged from 1 to 2), surface wind direction being easterly or southwesterly. Although weather characteristics of constant temperature days were significant, the occurrence frequency of constant temperature weather was only from 1.5% to 13%, thereinto, the lowest occurred under the surface small wind condition and the highest occurred under the cloudy weather with rain or snow condition. when constant temperature weather occurred, the 500 hPa, 850 hPa and the sea level pressure circulation situation had several types with relative concentration distribution. When the airflow on 500 hPa above Langfang was westerly or southwest, and langfang was situated in the surface low-pressure convergent field, the bottom and the back of high-pressure field, it was in favor of the formation of constant temperature weather. On the basis of all kinds of meteorological conditions of constant temperature weather, focusing on the frequent months of constant temperature weather occurrence, through matchting and screening  circulation situations and meteorological conditions, the extreme probability of constant temperature weather could be significantly descended. and it would be possible to accurately predict the constant temperature weather.

Key words: constant temperature , weather characteristics, obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis, extreme , predictability

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