关键词: WRF 模式, 模拟误差, 中国西北, 风场预测, 风电功率

Abstract:

In this paper，the performance of WRF model is validated by simulating wind velocity in January and April over northwestern China，and the errors between simulated and observed values were investigated ． Results show that WRF performance was better in April，when wind speed was big and steady，surface heating strong and temperature increasing faster，but in January wind speed was lower but gust frequently occurred． The relative error in 48 hours at different levels was under 10%，the correlation coefficient ( above0． 8) between observed and simulated values was significant at 90% in April． In January，the mean value of relative error in 48 hours
at different levels was in the range of 20%，and the absolute value of the correlation coefficient was more than 0． 30 and significant at the 99% confidence level． During the two simulation durations，the simulated value was obviously smaller than observed value when wind speed was high． Due to wind dominated by higher level momentum transfer downwards，terrain and thermodynamic function of land surface，the PBL parameters scheme in model is crucial in simulation of wind，especially in northwest China，where vegetable is sparse and terrain complex．

Key words: WRF model, simulation errors, northwestern China, wind simulation