玛曲草原气候生态环境变化及牧草产量灰色预测

J4 ›› 2009, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (1): 61-65.

玛曲草原气候生态环境变化及牧草产量灰色预测

李国军 ,张胜智 ,吉哲君

甘肃省甘南藏族自治州气象局,甘肃合作　747000

收稿日期:2009-02-06 修回日期:2009-03-10 出版日期:2009-03-31 发布日期:2009-03-30
作者简介:李国军(1964年- ) ,男,甘肃灵台人,工程师,主要从事天气预报及决策气象服务工作. E - mail: ligj378@yahoo. com. cn

Env ironmen t Var ia tion Character istic and Gray - rela tion Foreca st on Pa sture’s Y ield in Maqu Gra ssland

LI Guo-Jun, ZHANG Qing-Zhi, JI Zhe-Jun

Gannan M eteorological B ureau of Gansu Province, Hezuo 747000, China

Received:2009-02-06 Revised:2009-03-10 Online:2009-03-31 Published:2009-03-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

应用甘肃省玛曲县气象站1985～2005年生长季4～9月气温、降水、日照时数、蒸发量、≥0 ℃积温以及牧草产量资料对年序列进行模糊聚类分析,得出光热水配置对牧草产量影响显著;模糊聚类的结果与≥0 ℃积温的强振荡波和次强振荡波的迭加有关。灰色关联度分析表明4月降水对牧草返青至关重要, 6月气温对牧草分蘖和抽穗影响最大, 7月降水对牧草抽穗和开花作用明显;其次, 5月、7月日照, 5月气温、9月降水对牧草生长发育也有较大影响。牧草产量的突变点与气候突变点重合,认为气候变化的负面影响或累积效应是引起牧草产量突变的原因。由于玛曲草原气候生态系统复杂,对牧草产量进行GM (1, 1)建模预测,对认识气候生态环境变化影响牧草生长有一定的实际意义。

关键词: 玛曲草原, 气候生态环境, 牧草产量, 灰色预测

Abstract:

Based on temperature, p recip itation, sunshine hours, evaporation, ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature and pasture’s yield data from Ap ril to Sep tember during 1985 - 2005 inMaqu grassland, the relation between meteorological factors and pasture’s yield was analyzed through the method of fuzzy cluster analysis. Results indicated that the configuration of light, heat and water has an obvious influence on pasture’s yield, and the pasture’s yield was ralated to ≥0 ℃ accumulated temperature. The gray - relation analysis showed that the p recip itation in Ap ril is crucial to pasture’s recovery and the temperature in June affects pasture’s tiller and heading most, and the p recip itation in July hasmarked influence on pasture’s heading and blooming. Both sunshine hours inMay, July and p recip itation in Sep tember has an influence on pasture’s growth. The negative or accumulated effects of climate change resulted in decrease of pasture’s yield inMaqu grassland. Due to the comp licated climates environment system, itwill have a p ractical significance to set up forecastmodel to forecast pasture’s yield inMaqu grassland.

Key words: Maqu grassland, climate environment, pasture’s yield, gray - relation forecast

中图分类号:

S161

李国军, 张胜智, 吉哲君. 玛曲草原气候生态环境变化及牧草产量灰色预测[J]. J4, 2009, 27(1): 61-65.

LI Guo-Jun, ZHANG Qing-Zhi, JI Zhe-Jun. Env ironmen t Var ia tion Character istic and Gray - rela tion Foreca st on Pa sture’s Y ield in Maqu Gra ssland[J]. J4, 2009, 27(1): 61-65.

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