J4 ›› 2007, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (4): 62-67.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

朔州市近45 a气温变化及对农业生产的影响

刘瑞兰,吴占华,韩 虹   

  1. 山西省朔州市气象局,山西 朔州 036002
  • 收稿日期:2007-10-22 修回日期:2007-11-12 出版日期:2007-12-31 发布日期:2007-12-31
  • 作者简介:刘瑞兰(1969 - ) ,女,山西省朔州市人,理学学士,现从事短期预报工作

Tempera ture Var ia tion Character istic of Shuozhou in Recen t 45 Years and Its Effects on Agr icultura l Production

L IU Ruilan, WU Zhanhua, HAN Hong   

  1. Shuozhou M eteorological B ureau of Shanxi Province, Shuozhou 036002, China
  • Received:2007-10-22 Revised:2007-11-12 Online:2007-12-31 Published:2007-12-31

摘要:

利用1961~2005年朔州市6个气象观测站的气温资料,用气候倾向率、滑动平均等方法,对朔州市近45 a气温变化特征作了统计分析。结果表明: 45 a来,朔州市的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温自20世纪70年代中期以来呈上升趋势,平均气温以0. 43 ℃/10 a的速度上升;平均最低气温升温幅度明显高于平均最高气温;进入20世纪90年代后,这种趋势有所加快,尤其以冬季升温最为明显。1987年以来朔州相继出现了15个暖冬,较强的暖冬年份出现在1995年以后。气候变暖对农业生产互有利弊。如何趋利避害,确保当地农业高产优产是需要进一步研究的问题。

关键词: 气候变化, 暖冬, 农业生产

Abstract:

Based on the annual average air temperature data during 1961 - 2005 from six stations in Shuozhou, the air temperature change characteristics were analyzed statistically with methods such as climate inclination rate and sliding average in recent 45 years.The result indicated that during the past 45 years, the annualmean temperature, the annualmean maximum temperature and the annualmean minimum temperature p resented an up trend since the middle of the 1970 s, and the annualmean temperature rose with the rate of 0. 43℃/10 a, in addition, the mean minimum temperature rise overtopped the mean maximum temperature obviously. This up trend is accelerated to some extent after the 1990 s, especially obvious in winter’s temperature. There have been 15 warm winters since 1987 in Shuozhou, with the most typ ical ones occurring after 1995. The p lant diseases and insect pests tended to be more serious with climate warming, so it is necessary to study how to ensure high p roduction and quality of the local agriculture.

Key words: climate change, warm winter, agricultural production

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