J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (1): 79-82.

• 技术与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

研究气温变化趋势的新方法 —  三组耐抗线

刘俊卿1,2杨军1强德厚2   

  1. 1.南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044;2.日喀则地区气象局,西藏日喀则857000
  • 收稿日期:2006-11-10 修回日期:2007-01-15 出版日期:2007-03-31 发布日期:2007-03-31
  • 作者简介:刘俊卿(1972一),女,河北栾城人,硕士,研究方向为大气物理和气候学.E-mail:ljqchd@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目(40375003)资助

A New Method for Calculating Temperature Variation:Three Group Resistance Line

LIU Junqing1,2YANG Jun 1,QIANG Dehou2   

  1. 1.Department ofApplied Meteorology,Nanjing University ofInformation Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;2.Rikeze Meteorological Bureau,Rikeze 857000, X/zang,China
  • Received:2006-11-10 Revised:2007-01-15 Online:2007-03-31 Published:2007-03-31

摘要:

针对气象资料难以满足高斯分布的情况,引进了具有耐抗性的三组耐抗线方法,分析了满足不同信度情况下最小二乘回归和三组耐抗线的差异,并用西藏近30 a气温资料进行了检验。结果表明三组耐抗线方法比最dx--乘法研究气候变化趋势有明显优势;采用最小二乘法得到的西藏气候变暖估计偏高

关键词: 三组耐抗线, 最dx--乘法, 气温变化

Abstract:

In the light of the question that meteorolo cal surface data are unfit to Gaussian distribution,the variation tendencies compu.ted with Tibet surface air temperature data by Three Group Resistance Line and Least SquaJ℃Regression Method were compared in tllis paper.Results show that Three Group Resistance Line is not significantly influenced by outliers and is useful for tendencv an alysis of meteorological records sometimes without suficient number of samples . The tendencies from Th ree Group Resistance Line were less than those from Least SquaJ℃Regression method in Tibet during 1971—2000.

Key words: Three Group Resistance Line, Least Square Regression Method , temperature variation

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