多层递阶回归分析法在全国初夏雨量预测中的应用

J4 ›› 2008, Vol. 26 ›› Issue (4): 80-85.

多层递阶回归分析法在全国初夏雨量预测中的应用

陈红玉^{1, 2, 3} ,高志伟^{1, 2, 3} ,李建美^{2, 3} ,钟爱华^2,3

1.云南大学大气科学系,云南昆明 650091; 2. 云南省大理州气象局,云南　大理　671000;3. 云南省季风与气象灾害研究实验室,云南昆明650032

收稿日期:2008-06-16 修回日期:2008-10-03 出版日期:2008-12-30 发布日期:2008-12-30
作者简介:陈红玉(1967-) ,女,高级工程师,主要从事中短期天气预报工作. E-mail: pfhy121@yahoo. com.cn

Application of Multi - level Recursive Regression Analysis on Foreca sting Early Summer Rainfa ll over China

CHEN Hongyu^{1, 2, 3} , GAO Zhiwei^{1,2, 3} , L I J ianmei ^2,3, ZHONG Aihua^2,3

1. Departm ent of A tm ospheric Sciences, Yunnan University, Kunm ing 650091, China; 2. DaliM eteorological B ureau of Yunnan Province, Dali 671000, China; 3. Laboratory ofM onsoon and M eteorological D isaster of Yunnan Province, Kunm ing 650032, China

Received:2008-06-16 Revised:2008-10-03 Online:2008-12-30 Published:2008-12-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在传统统计方法的基础上,引入多层递阶方法。将多层递阶方法与回归方法合二为一,作为新的预测方法尝试,以弥补常规统计方法中回归系数是常数的不足。将多层递阶回归方法应用于短期气候预测,建立多层递阶回归模型,并用全国160个气象站5月份雨量作预报试验。经过近2 a的实际预报表明:该模型对华中、华东、两广大部、云贵高原大部的5月份雨量有较好的预报能力,具有一定的参考价值。
　

关键词: 多层递阶回归分析, 短期气候预测, 全国5月份雨量

Abstract:

Based on traditional statistical method, the multi - level recursive regression method was used to make up the inadequate p roblem that regression coefficient is a constant in conventional statisticalmethod. Using the multi - level recursive regression model,the forecasting p recip itation amounts inMay for 160 weather stations over China are investigated. The results show that the model can reasonably simulate the precip itation amounts over Central China, East China, most of Guangxi and Guangdong p rovinces, a majority of Yunnan and Guizhou p rovinces in the early stage of summer.

Key words: multi - level recursive regression analysis, short - time climate forecast, precip itation amounts over China in May

中图分类号:

P456. 7

陈红玉, 高志伟, 李建美, 钟爱华. 多层递阶回归分析法在全国初夏雨量预测中的应用[J]. J4, 2008, 26(4): 80-85.

CHEN Gong-Yu, GAO Zhi-Wei, LI Jian-Mei, ZHONG Ai-Hua. Application of Multi - level Recursive Regression Analysis on Foreca sting Early Summer Rainfa ll over China[J]. J4, 2008, 26(4): 80-85.

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