石家庄夏季用电量对天气的响应及其预测模型

J4 ›› 2009, Vol. 27 ›› Issue (3): 282-287.

石家庄夏季用电量对天气的响应及其预测模型

阎　访，陈　静，车少静

河北省石家庄市气象局，河北　石家庄　050081

收稿日期:2009-06-29 修回日期:2009-07-28 出版日期:2010-09-30 发布日期:2009-09-30
作者简介:阎访（１９７４－），女，河北辛集人，学士，工程师，主要从事气象科技服务工作．Ｅ－ｍａｉｌ：ｓｊｙｓｙ＠ｓｉｎａ．ｃｏｍ

Response ofElectric Power Load toW eather in Summ er of Shijiazhuang and Its PredictionM odel

YAN 　Fang, CHEN 　Jing, CHE Shao-Jing

(ShijiazhuangMeteorologicalBureau ofHebeiProvince, Shijiazhuang050081, China)

Received:2009-06-29 Revised:2009-07-28 Online:2010-09-30 Published:2009-09-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

从石家庄市2005~2007年每年6~8月的逐日用电量资料中分离出随气象因子变化的气象电量,分有、无降水日分别计算了气象电量与同期气象资料中关键气象要素的相关系数,着重分析了气象电量随气温、湿度、降水的变化规律。结果表明:石家庄夏季气象电量与气温呈显著性正相关,而与相对湿度仅在有降水日为显著负相关;计算了用电量逐日变化值与气象要素日变化值之间的相关系数,发现要素差值之间存在着很好的相关性。在统计分析的基础上,借助Origin7. 5软件,分有、无降水日建立了综合气象因子影响下气象电量及用电量逐日变化的多元回归预测模型,回归统计及方差分析表明:预测方程均通过了α=0. 0005的F检验,复相关高于单相关,拟合率较高,能为电力部门合理调度提供参考。

关键词: 用电量, 气象分析, 预测模型　　　　　

Abstract:

Based on the data ofdaily demand for electricity from June toAugustduring the period of2005- 2007 in Shijiazhuang, the meteorological electric quantity variedwithweather factorswas setapart, and the correlation coefficients betweenmeteorologicalelectric quantity on rainy days or cleardays and keymeteorological factors on the same periodwere calculated respectively, especially themeteorological electric quantity changing ruleswith temperature, humidity and precipitationwere studied. The results show that themeteorological electric quantity correlated positivelywith temperature, butnegativelywith relative humidity on rainy days. The correlation coef-
ficients between daily change of electric quantity and daily variation ofmeteorological elementswere calculated also, and itwas found that they had good correlation. Based on statistical analysis, themultiple regression predictionmodels forweather electric quantity and electric quantity daily change under the influence of compositiveweather elements on rainy days and cleardays respectivelywere established by usingOrigin 7. 5 software. The regression statistics and VAR analysis both indicate that all equations have passed the F test
withα=0. 0005. Themultiple correlation is higher than single correlation, and the consistent rate is highwhichmeans thismodel can be used as a reference for electric power department to attemper the electric power reasonably.

Key words: electric quantity, weather analysis, predictionmodel

中图分类号:

P468. 0

阎　访, 陈　静, 车少静. 石家庄夏季用电量对天气的响应及其预测模型[J]. J4, 2009, 27(3): 282-287.

YAN 　Fang, CHEN 　Jing, CHE Shao-Jing. Response ofElectric Power Load toW eather in Summ er of Shijiazhuang and Its PredictionM odel[J]. J4, 2009, 27(3): 282-287.

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