多模式动态融合订正方法在青海省大到暴雨预报中的应用与分析

doi:10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639-2026-01-0149

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为提升青海省未来24 h大到暴雨预报准确率，尤其是对突发性暴雨事件的捕捉能力，本文利用青海省2023年7—9月降水观测和多个模式预报资料进行检验优选，再对优选模式预报产品进行分位数映射订正，将多模式动态融合与分级强度订正方法相结合，应用于青藏高原地区的大到暴雨客观预报。结果表明：中国气象局（China Meteorological Administration，CMA）华东区域数值预报系统（CMA-SH9）、中国气象局北京快速更新循环数值预报系统（CMA-BJ）及中央台指导预报产品（SCMOC）在青海省大到暴雨预报中效果相对较优，因此最终考虑选取这3种模式作为优选模式进行融合；对3类优选模式分位数映射订正再动态融合后，各量级晴雨预报准确率和TS（Threat Score）评分等检验指标均有不同程度提升，但强度偏大，存在系统性正偏差；3类优选模式动态融合分级订正明显改善了预报偏差，较单模式预报晴雨预报准确率提升7.8%~27.7%，TS评分提升9.3%~22.8%；区域性大到暴雨个例分析表明：动态融合分级订正预报偏差更接近1，降水预报的雨带位置特别是大到暴雨落区也更接近降水实况；其晴雨预报准确率、大到暴雨TS评分、大到暴雨命中率分别较最优单模式提升2.2%、19.4%、27.4%。

关键词: 大到暴雨预报, 多模式动态融合订正, 分位数映射方法, 青海省

Abstract:

To improve the accuracy of 24-hour heavy to rainstorm forecasts in Qinghai Province, particularly the capability to capture sudden rainstorm events, this study first evaluates and selects the optimal models using precipitation observations and multiple model forecast datasets from July to September 2023 in Qinghai Province. After applying quantile mapping correction to the selected model forecast products, a combination of multi-model dynamic fusion and intensity-based calibration is employed for objective heavy to rainstorm forecasting over the Tibetan Plateau. The results show that CMA-SH9 (China Meteorological Administration Shanghai 9-km model), CMA-BJ (China Meteorological Administration Beijing Rapid-Update Cycling Forecast System), and SCMOC (Central Meteorological Observatory Guidance Forecast Products) demonstrate relatively superior performance. Therefore, these three models are selected as the preferred models for fusion. After quantile mapping correction and subsequent dynamic fusion of the three preferred models, verification metrics including the threat score (TS) and accuracy of categorical precipitation forecasts improved to varying degrees across all intensity thresholds, although the forecasts exhibited a systematic positive bias with overestimated intensity. The intensity-based calibration applied after dynamic fusion of the three preferred models significantly reduced forecast bias, increasing the categorical forecast accuracy by 7.8%-27.7% and the TS score by 9.3%-22.8% compared to single models. Case analysis of a regional heavy to rainstorm event indicates that the bias of the dynamically fused and intensity-calibrated forecast is closer to 1, with the predicted rainband position, particularly the heavy to rainstorm area, more consistent with observations. Compared with the best single model, its categorical forecast accuracy, TS score for heavy to rainstorm, and probability of detection (POD) for heavy to rainstorm increased by 2.2%, 19.4%, and 27.4%, respectively.

Key words: heavy to rainstorm forecast, multi-model dynamic fusion correction, quantile mapping method, Qinghai Province

中图分类号:

P457.6

王倩, 李静, 张青梅, 李金海, 扎西才让, 祁万鹏. 多模式动态融合订正方法在青海省大到暴雨预报中的应用与分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2026, 44(1): 149-158.

WANG Qian, LI Jing, ZHANG Qingmei, LI Jinhai, ZHAXI Cairang, QI Wanpeng. Application and analysis of multi-model synamic fusion correction method in heavy to rainstorm forecast in Qinghai Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2026, 44(1): 149-158.

图/表 9

图1 青海省降水观测站点空间分布

Fig.1 Spatial distribution of precipitation observation stations in Qinghai Province

图2 青海省2023年7—9月各预报产品未来24 h时效的3 h和24 h累计降水综合检验结果

Fig.2 Comprehensive verification results of 3-hourly and 24-hour accumulated precipitation forecasts at 24-hour lead time from multiple products in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

表1 青海省2023年7—9月观测及订正前后不同预报产品日降水量的百分位值

Tab.1 The percentiles of daily precipitation from observations and multiple forecast products before and after correction in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

百分位数	观测降水量/mm	不同预报产品/mm
百分位数	观测降水量/mm	CMA-BJ	SCMOC	CMA-SH9	QM-BJ	QM-SCMOC	QM-SH9
20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
40	0	0.1	0	0	0	0	0
50	0	0.3	0.5	0.4	0	0	0
55	0.1	0.6	0.9	0.8	0	0	0
60	0.3	1.0	1.3	1.5	0.1	0	0.1
65	0.6	1.5	1.8	2.6	0.4	0.2	0.4
70	1.2	2.1	2.3	4.0	1.0	0.7	1.0
75	2.1	3.0	3.0	5.7	1.8	1.4	2.0
80	3.3	4.1	3.8	8.0	3.2	2.7	3.4
85	5.0	5.7	4.0	10.8	5.4	4.7	5.5
90	7.2	8.0	6.7	14.8	8.7	8.0	8.8
95	11.5	12.4	11.6	21.0	15.3	14.6	15.1
99	22.7	23.6	20.8	34.6	32.9	33.1	32.6
99.5	29.1	29.3	26.6	40.0	43.2	43.4	41.2
99.9	44.0	42.8	35.7	51.7	77.6	78.5	64.8
99.99	69.2	65.8	48.0	67.5	142.1	139.6	102.9
99.999	89.7	90.9	54.2	81.4	162.2	151.8	135.2
100	96.2	114.9	57.1	103.3	200.1	171.5	149.0

图3 青海省2023年7—9月订正前后不同预报产品和观测日降水量累积概率分布曲线

Fig.3 The cumulative probability distribution curves of daily precipitation from observations and multiple forecast products before and after correction in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

图4 青海省2023年7—9月订正前后不同预报产品未来24 h时效的3 h和24 h累计降水预报检验

Fig.4 Verification of 3-hourly and 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecasts at 24-hour lead time before and after correction for multiple forecast products in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

图5 青海省2023年7—9月3种优选模式动态融合08：00（a）和20：00（b）逐3 h预报标准化权重系数趋势

Fig.5 Trends of standardized weight coefficients for 3-hourly forecasts from three preferred models with dynamic fusion at 08:00 (a) and 20:00 (b) in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

图6 青海省2023年7—9月不同预报产品未来24 h时效的3 h和24 h累计降水预报综合检验

Fig.6 Comprehensive verification of 3-hourly and 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecasts at 24-hour lead time from multiple forecast products in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023

表2 青海省2024年9月3日08：00至5日08：00不同预报产品未来24 h时效的3 h和24 h累计降水预报综合检验

Tab.2 Comprehensive verification of 3-hourly and 24-hour cumulative precipitation forecasts at 24-hour lead time from multiple forecast products from 08：00 on 3 to 08：00 on 5 September 2024 in Qinghai Province

预报间隔/h	检验指标	CMA-BJ	CMA-SH9	SCMOC	QH-M1	QH-M2	QH-SPCC
3	PC	0.63	0.66	0.57	0.71	0.80	0.58
	TS	0.56	0.58	0.53	0.62	0.69	0.53
	PO	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.08	0.03
	FAR	0.43	0.41	0.47	0.37	0.27	0.46
	BIAS	1.71	1.67	1.83	1.55	1.25	1.79
	TS（≥10 mm）	0.13	0.14	0.15	0.30	0.17	0.20
	BIAS（≥10 mm）	0.47	0.81	0.45	2.93	0.38	2.50
	POD（≥10 mm）	0.17	0.22	0.19	0.90	0.22	0.59
24	PC	0.89	0.89	0.90	0.90	0.92	0.89
	TS	0.89	0.89	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.89
	PO	0.001	0.001	0.003	0.001	0.01	0.002
	FAR	0.11	0.11	0.10	0.10	0.08	0.11
	BIAS	1.12	1.12	1.11	1.11	1.07	1.12
	TS（≥25 mm）	0.26	0.31	0.31	0.28	0.37	0.23
	BIAS（≥25 mm）	0.81	1.52	1.61	3.56	2.36	3.94
	POD（≥25 mm）	0.38	0.63	0.73	0.99	0.93	0.93

图7 2024年9月3日08：00至5日08：00青海省东部地区实况降水与不同预报产品累积降水量分布（单位：mm）

Fig.7 Distribution of accumulated precipitation from observations and multiple forecast products over eastern Qinghai Province from 08：00 on 3 September to 08：00 on 5 September 2024 （Unit： mm）

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