关键词: 降水, 公路漫水阻断, Logistic, 风险预报

Abstract:  Based on road overwater blocking events and cumulative precipitation data in corresponding period in Hainan Province from 2015 to 2018, the general distribution characteristics of road overwater blocking events in Hainan Province and their correlation with precipitation factors were analyzed. The results show that 78.4% precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 24 hours before the events, and 49.0% precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 12 hours before the events. When the hourly rainfall exceeded 50 mm, the cumulative precipitation exceeded 100 mm within 24 hours and the hourly precipitation exceeded 30 mm, the daily precipitation exceeded 50 mm within 3-5 days and the rainfall exceeded 10 mm within 3-6 hours consecutively, the overwater blocking events might be triggered. The rank-correlation method was used for further quantitative analysis, and it showed that the risk of events increased by 1.3% and 0.7% respectively with the increase of 1 mm of cumulative precipitation in 3 and 24 hours. The Logistic risk prediction models of road overwater blocking events were established based on the cumulative precipitation of 3 hours and 24 hours before the occurrence of the event, respectively. When the two models were applied separately, the prediction ability of short-term heavy rainfall and total cumulative precipitation in early stage was insufficient. When the model was applied comprehensively by using the analytic hierarchy process, the prediction accuracy of the road overwater blocking events could reach 91.7%.

Key words: highway, rainfall, grey correlation, risk zoning