重庆地区冬季冷暖变化及其异常成因分析

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1961—2018年重庆地区34个国家气象站冬季逐月平均气温资料，NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及大气环流指数和海温等资料，分析重庆冬季冷暖变化的时间演变特征及冷冬、暖冬年的异常环流形势。结果表明，近58 a重庆冬季平均气温整体呈增加趋势（约增加0.7 ℃），且变暖趋势通过α＝0.05的显著性检验，增暖突变从1993年开始。重庆冷冬年和暖冬年的环流形势存在明显差异：前期夏、秋季的热带海温场偏冷（暖），冬季海平面气压场上西伯利亚高压偏强（弱），500 hPa高度距平场上欧亚大陆呈明显北高（低）南低（高）分布形势，乌拉尔山高压脊和东亚大槽偏强（弱）；同时，西太平洋副热带高压和高原冷高压偏弱（强），印缅槽偏强（弱），导致东亚冬季风偏强（弱），有（不）利于冷空气南下影响重庆地区；印缅槽偏强（弱）导致槽前偏南风偏强（弱），有（不）利于槽前暖湿空气输送和重庆地区降水，这种环流配置导致重庆地区易出现冷（暖）冬。热带印度洋、西北太平洋和南半球赤道中太平洋是影响重庆冬季冷暖的关键海温区，对重庆冬季气温预测具有一定的指示意义。

关键词: 冬季冷暖, 大气环流, 海温, 重庆

Abstract: The temporal evolution characteristics of cold and warm variation in winter of Chongqing and the abnormal circulation in cold and warm winter years were analyzed by using monthly average temperature data in winter from 34 national weather stations in Chongqing, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, atmospheric circulation index and sea temperature data from 1961 to 2018. The results show that the average temperature in winter in Chongqing had shown a warming trend in recent 58 years, which passed the significance test at 0.05, and the average winter temperature in recent 58 years had increased 0.7 ℃, and the abrupt change of warming began in 1993. There were obvious differences between the circulation patterns in cold winter and warm winter years in Chongqing. When the tropical sea temperature field in summer and autumn was colder (warmer), the Siberian high pressure on sea level pressure field in winter was stronger (weaker) because of the atmosphere-ocean coupling effect. Meanwhile, the 500 hPa height anomalies was obviously higher (lower) in the north and lower (higher) in the south over the Eurasian continent, which made the Ural mountain high pressure and the east Asian trough stronger (weaker). At the same time, Western Pacific subtropical high and the plateau cold high were weaker (stronger) and Indo-Myanmar trough was stronger (weaker), which resulted in stronger (weaker) winter monsoon in East Asia, it was (was not) beneficial for cold air moving southward to affect Chongqing area. The stronger (weaker) Indo-Myanmar trough made the stronger (weaker) southerly wind in front of the trough, which was (wasn’t) conducive to warm and humid air transportation in front of the trough and precipitation in Chongqing area. This circulation configuration made Chongqing tend to be cold (warm) winter. The tropical Indian Ocean, the northwest Pacific Ocean and the equatorial central Pacific Ocean in the southern hemisphere were the key sea temperature zones affecting the cold and warm winter in Chongqing and had certain early indication for prediction of winter temperature in Chongqing.

Key words: cold and warm winter, atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature, Chongqing

中图分类号:

P466

刘晓冉, 胡祖恒, 李永华, 唐红玉. 重庆地区冬季冷暖变化及其异常成因分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2020, 38(03): 404-410.

LIU Xiaoran, HU Zuheng, LI Yonghua, TANG Hongyu. Variation Characteristics and Formation Cause of Cold and Warm Winter in Chongqing[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology, 2020, 38(03): 404-410.

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重庆地区冬季冷暖变化及其异常成因分析

Variation Characteristics and Formation Cause of Cold and Warm Winter in Chongqing

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