关键词: 电线覆冰, 风险, 层次分析法

Abstract: Based on the data of transmission line icing accidents in Northern Hebei  Province and power microweather station observations from 2012 to 2015 provided by the power company, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution of transmission line icing accidents were analyzed. Meanwhile, the daily minimum temperature, maximum temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed and daily precipitation were selected as forecast factors. The risk prediction model for transmission line icing was built and verified. The results show that transmission line icing accidents mostly occurred in mountainous areas in Northern Hebei Province and mainly from November to May of the following year. Different types of underlying surfaces corresponded to different types of ice accidents. More than 56% of icing flashover occurred in plain and the plateau on bam, and dancing mainly distributed in mountains and valleys. Most accidents occurred when minimum daily temperature ranged from -8 to 0 ℃, the maximum daily temperature ranged from -4 to 4 ℃, the average daily relative humidity was above 80%, and the average daily wind speed ranged from 1 to 3 m·s-1. The test results of prediction model of transmission line icing accidents showed that when transmission line icing accidents happened, the prediction results were all above level 2, and there was no false negatives, but there was a small false alarm rate.

Key words: transmission line icing accidents, risk, hierarchical analysis method