关键词: 新疆, 气温, 垂直订正法, 多元回归+残差订正法

Abstract:

Based on the monthly mean temperature in 2015 from 105 weather stations in Xinjiang and digital elevation model (DEM), the spatial interpolation of monthly, seasonal and annual mean temperature in Xinjiang were done by using the vertical correction method and multiple linear regression plus residual error correction method. And the precisions of temperature interpolated by two kinds of methods were evaluated with the observations at testing stations by using the cross-validation method and correlation analysis. The results show that the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) of temperature interpolated by the vertical correction method in Xinjiang were 0.58-1.79 ℃ and 0.46-1.17 ℃, respectively, while those interpolated by the multiple linear regression plus residual error correction method were 1.47-2.89 ℃ and 0.98-2.23 ℃. The correlation coefficient between the observed and the predicted by the vertical correction method was 0.90-0.98, while that between the observed and the predicted by the multiple regression plus residual error correction method was 0.52-0.91. Compared with the multiple regression plus residual error correction method, the error between the observed and the predicted by the vertical correction method was smaller and the correlation was better. So, the vertical correction method was more suitable for temperature interpolation in Xinjiang.

Key words: Xinjiang, temperature, vertical correction method, multiple regression plus residual error correction method