多模式动态融合订正方法在青海省大到暴雨预报中的应用与分析
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王倩, 李静, 张青梅, 李金海, 扎西才让, 祁万鹏
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Application and analysis of multi-model synamic fusion correction method in heavy to rainstorm forecast in Qinghai Province
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WANG Qian, LI Jing, ZHANG Qingmei, LI Jinhai, ZHAXI Cairang, QI Wanpeng
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表1 青海省2023年7—9月观测及订正前后不同预报产品日降水量的百分位值
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Tab.1 The percentiles of daily precipitation from observations and multiple forecast products before and after correction in Qinghai Province from July to September 2023
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| 百分位数 | 观测降水量/mm | 不同预报产品/mm | | CMA-BJ | SCMOC | CMA-SH9 | QM-BJ | QM-SCMOC | QM-SH9 | | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 40 | 0 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 50 | 0 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 55 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 60 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0 | 0.1 | | 65 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | | 70 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.0 | | 75 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.0 | | 80 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.4 | | 85 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 5.5 | | 90 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 6.7 | 14.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 8.8 | | 95 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 11.6 | 21.0 | 15.3 | 14.6 | 15.1 | | 99 | 22.7 | 23.6 | 20.8 | 34.6 | 32.9 | 33.1 | 32.6 | | 99.5 | 29.1 | 29.3 | 26.6 | 40.0 | 43.2 | 43.4 | 41.2 | | 99.9 | 44.0 | 42.8 | 35.7 | 51.7 | 77.6 | 78.5 | 64.8 | | 99.99 | 69.2 | 65.8 | 48.0 | 67.5 | 142.1 | 139.6 | 102.9 | | 99.999 | 89.7 | 90.9 | 54.2 | 81.4 | 162.2 | 151.8 | 135.2 | | 100 | 96.2 | 114.9 | 57.1 | 103.3 | 200.1 | 171.5 | 149.0 |
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