内蒙古一次大暴雨过程的对流尺度集合预报试验

计燕霞, 孙鑫, 姚晓娟, 刘林春, 朱峰, 刘珂, 王雪严

A experiment of convection-allowing ensemble prediction for a heavy rainstorm in Inner Mongolia

JI Yanxia, SUN Xin, YAO Xiaojuan, LIU Linchun, ZHU Feng, LIU Ke, WANG Xueyan

图9 四类集合预报对2021年7月17日20:00—18日02:00（a、b）及18日02:00—08:00（c、d）25 mm（a、c）及60 mm（b、d）以上降水的TS评分 （横实线为对应集合预报PM，横虚线为集合预报平均，下同）

Fig.9 The threat scores of four ensemble forecasts for precipitation greater than 25 mm (a, c) and greater than 60 mm (b, d) from 20:00 on 17 to 02:00 on 18 (a, b) and from 02:00 to 08:00 on 18 (c, d) July 2021 (The solid horizontal line represents the PM of the corresponding ensemble forecast, and the dashed line represents the ensemble forecast mean; the same as below)