基于频率匹配法的浙江夏季区域性暴雨分类订正研究

毛程燕, 李浩文, 王健疆, 韩超, 郑倩, 童监萍

Correction of regional rainstorm forecasts in summer in Zhejiang based on synoptic classification and frequency matching

MAO Chengyan, LI Haowen, WANG Jianjiang, HAN Chao, ZHENG Qian, TONG Jianping

表2 2020—2023年不同类型暴雨的频率匹配法预报技巧评分

Tab.2 Forecast skill scores of rainstorms for different types from 2020 to 2023 using the frequency matching method

静止锋雨带型 暖式切变型 副高型 台风型 台风倒槽型 冷槽型 TS 订正前 0.335 0 0.023 0.433 0 0 订正后 0.368 0.118 0.128 0.456 0.391 0.154 ETS 订正前 0.274 0 0.010 0.312 0 0.044 订正后 0.297 0.053 0.054 0.332 0.343 0.103 BIAS 订正前 0.726 0 0.114 0.940 0 0 订正后 1.015 0.900 1.127 1.009 1.133 0.957 FPR 订正前 0.404 0 0.778 0.376 0 1.000 订正后 0.466 0.778 0.787 0.376 0.471 0.727 FNR 订正前 0.567 1.000 0.975 0.414 1.000 1.000 订正后 0.458 0.800 0.760 0.371 0.400 0.739 POD 订正前 0.433 0 0.025 0.586 0 0 订正后 0.542 0.200 0.241 0.629 0.600 0.261 RMSE 订正前 20.351 24.562 23.542 29.136 19.072 22.944 订正后 22.347 32.600 28.560 32.786 20.434 28.846