大连地区ECMWF细网格模式阵风预报误差检验与分析

王蕾, 杨景泰, 卞若玢, 隋玉秀, 孙悦程, 周丽丽, 魏瑗瑗

Verification and analysis of gust forecast of ECMWF fine grid model in Dalian area

WANG Lei, YANG Jingtai, BIAN Ruobin, SUI Yuxiu, SUN Yuecheng, ZHOU Lili, WEI Yuanyuan

表3 2017—2019年ECMWF细网格3~72 h阵风预报不同风级阵风风速与实况极大风速的相关系数

Tab.3 The correlation coefficients between wind speed of gust with different levels forecasted by the ECMWF for 3-72 h validity period and the observed maximum wind speed from 2017 to 2019

预报时效 预报风级 全部风级 3级及以下 4级 5级 6级 7级 8级 9级 10级 3 h 0.305 0.316 0.298 0.353 0.376 0.222 0.236* 0.147* 0.831 12 h 0.296 0.305 0.319 0.303 0.324 0.238 -0.125* 0.803 15 h 0.302 0.28 0.287 0.315 0.386 0.058* 0.249* -0.832* 0.819 24 h 0.282 0.293 0.307 0.272 0.314 0.272 -0.157* 0* 0.785 36 h 0.256 0.233 0.302 0.287 0.367 0.179* -0.298* 0.207* 0.762 48 h 0.244 0.27 0.274 0.271 0.316 0.299 -0.082* 0.749 60 h 0.228 0.239 0.26 0.286 0.316 -0.013* -0.252* 0* 0.737 72 h 0.204 0.246 0.228 0.225 0.346 -0.028* -0.564* 0.994* 0.711