基于分位数映射法的四川省ECMWF模式降水预报误差订正分析
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曹萍萍, 肖递祥, 龙柯吉, 王佳津, 杨康权
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Deviation correction of precipitation forecast by ECMWF model based on quantile mapping method in Sichuan Province
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CAO Pingping, XIAO Dixiang, LONG Keji, WANG Jiajin, YANG Kangquan
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表2 盆地与攀西地区观测降水量与模式预报降水累积概率分位值
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Tab.2 The quantile values of observed precipitation and cumulative probability of precipitation forecasted by the model in Basin and Panxi region
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| 百分位数 | 盆地 | 攀西 | | 观测降水量/mm | 降水累积概率/% | 观测降水量/mm | 降水累积概率/% | | 5 | 27.3 | 85.3 | 25.9 | 89.7 | | 10 | 29.4 | 91.0 | 26.7 | 98.4 | | 15 | 32.3 | 97.1 | 28.5 | 107.3 | | 20 | 36.1 | 102.4 | 29.0 | 116.6 | | 25 | 39.2 | 108.7 | 29.6 | 125.0 | | 30 | 42.8 | 116.4 | 30.9 | 132.7 | | 35 | 46.1 | 124.0 | 31.6 | 140.9 | | 40 | 49.5 | 143.4 | 33.2 | 150.5 | | 45 | 53.9 | 152.3 | 33.8 | 161.4 | | 50 | 57.8 | 164.1 | 34.8 | 172.0 | | 55 | 61.9 | 186.5 | 36.6 | 182.3 | | 60 | 67.9 | 198.3 | 38.3 | 194.7 | | 65 | 74.2 | 211.9 | 41.1 | 206.0 | | 70 | 82.6 | 227.0 | 43.8 | 218.6 | | 75 | 93.1 | 244.5 | 47.1 | 236.8 | | 80 | 101.8 | 264.6 | 50.7 | 253.0 | | 85 | 116.9 | 278.5 | 56.6 | 279.3 | | 90 | 136.3 | 286.0 | 65.8 | 310.9 | | 95 | 174.5 | 342.1 | 73.3 | 354.8 |
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